Kinda like the 10 commandments but you can’t be absolved for violating one of these rules…

1. Home Field Advantage is a thing

MLS has one of the largest home field advantage (HFA) in world soccer. Eliot McKinley displayed that here with his work at the great American Soccer Analysis (check it out if you haven’t). In my model, HFA is worth about 0.6 of a goal. Home teams from -125 to +125 will be prominently featured on my cards. With about 50% of home teams winning each year, ignore HFA at your own risk.

2. Hold your nose and bet the big underdog (unless they’re playing kids)

MLS is a league of parity. The difference between the top team and bottom team is minimal, especially compared to the European leagues. Teams can go from wooden spoon to playoffs in a year (looking at you FCC). Basically, anyone can beat anyone (unless they’re playing a lot of academy kids).

Since 2020, home teams at odds +200 or greater are 38/114 (33%) for +23 units!!!!!! This goes hand-in-hand with Edict #1. The Whitecaps 🧢 v. LAFC in 2020 was a perfect example as was CLTFC 👑 v. Philly at the end of last year.

3. Don’t bet on a team playing their backup GK

Bad idea. The way MLS roster construction works, there is often a significant drop off from starting GK to the backup. If a backup (or bad) GK plays for a significant stretch, we’re backing up the Brinks truck.

A shoutout to Kenneth Vermeer here for his 2021 performance of giving up 1.7 goals/game. Thank you!

4. Steve Clark won’t save the PK, just accept it…

He has saved 5/28 PKs faced in 10 MLS seasons (not including shootouts). And is 1/13 in the last two years (1 missed the target) and wasn’t close to any in the 2021 MLS Cup Final.

It’s not gonna happen just accept it.

5. Wait for lineups on Wednesdays

Ah, the beautifully chaotic Wednesday action, up to 15 games jammed into 4 time slots. Just wait for lineups, but be ready to fire. Frequently, odds shift 20-30 cents when lineups are dropped. Understanding which star players are going from the jump and which teams are making mass changes is a major difference. It’s not worth the risk of betting early during the midweek. Oh, and lineups can come out anytime from 1 hour to 30 minutes before kickoff, so have twitter notifications ready.

When MLS requires lineups to be announced 1 hour before kickoff like every other soccer league, I might shed a tear.

6. Play the video

Simple. If you bet on LA Galaxy or Chicharito to score, play this video before kickoff.

Just do it, it’s a rule. And it always works.

7. Don’t Panic in Year 1 (a.k.a The David Gaas Rule)

Contrary to popular belief across the world, MLS is a difficult league. Consistently, it takes players who were exceptional in Europe or South America time to adjust to the league. Whether its the longer travel times, new coaches, adjusting to life in America, etc., year after year it happens. But don’t panic. Buy the 2nd year bounce back.

Here is a shortlist of recent players that follow this edict:

Player	G+A Y1	G+A Y2
Brenner (FCC)	9	24
Santi Rodriguez (NYCFC)	2	14
Hany Mukhtar (Nash)	7	26
Gonzalo Higuain (Inter Miami)	3*	19
Chicharito (LAG)	2*	19
Lucas Zelarayan (Crew)	8	16
Miguel Almiron (ATL)	17	23

Top candidates to make a jump this year: Insigne, Shaqiri, Swiderski, Gabriel Pereira, and World Cup winner Thiago Almada.

Gass – if you see this, you need to trademark this rule…

8. Take advantage of March Madness

MLS begins at a unique spot in the American sports calendar. Late February and March is prime college basketball season as the tournament begins followed by the NBA and NHL playoffs as well as The Masters. This is one way to say, we can catch some soft lines. MLS doesn’t take a massive handle compared to the other sports mentioned, so books might be “sleeping” as we understand who is good and who stinks.

Particularly, I think this applies to the Anytime Goal Scorer and Golden Boot markets. Identifying which teams are playing well, who will be on PKs, and who is accumulating expected goals (xG) will pay dividends for individual game bets and futures. Humble brag, I hit Taty and Hany to win their Golden Boots the last 2 year by betting on them in May or June.

All that being said, let’s get to the good stuff. MLS Cup odds are out. I will get the preview up soon and let’s cash some tickets.