Sometimes it’s easier to cross off players than identify the singular winner with awards. So, that’s what I will do here. Plus, it’s one of the most fun bets to make.

One thing I should point out is that betting this throughout the season is +EV. Last year, Taty led the league in goals and he was finalizing a transfer to Girona during the summer. Yet, books still had him up as the favorite for multiple days after the transfer was confirmed. This is when I bet Hany at 10-1 and won! So, it helps to be aware of news during the season.

I looked at all the Golden Boot winners since 2014 – kind of an arbitrary year, but it’s the last year of Chivas USA and NYCFC and Orlando were established in 2015 as the first wave of modern expansion. So, it’s slightly relevant in the story of MLS. I put together some criteria and trends to potentially identify the 2023 Golden Boot winner.

First, let’s look at the odds board (as of Feb 22).

1. Between 22 and 30 years old

The youngest Golden Boot winner was Rossi in 2020. The oldest Golden Boot winner in this time was BWP’s second time winning in 2016 at 30-years-old.

Players eliminated: Chicharito, Carlos Vela, Raul Ruidiaz, Lorenzo Insigne, Romell Quioto, Corey Burke, Ola Kamara, Kei Kamara, Johnny Russell, Talles Magno, Gyasi Zardes, and Heber amongst others.

2. Designated Player Status and International

All of the last 9 Golden Boot winners were a DP for their team. So, we are looking for an elite player. Further, no American has won the Golden Boot since Wondo in 2012. DeRosario was the lone Canadian to ever win it in 2011. So, we’re looking for an elite, international player.

Players eliminated: Jesus Ferreira, Brandon Vazquez, Dejan Joveljic, Jeremy Ebobisse, Adama Diomande, Kacper Przybylko, Brian White, Paul Arriola, Jordan Morris, etc.

3. No more than 3 full years of MLS Experience

Interestingly, every Golden Boot winner accomplished the feat in their first, second, or third full year in the league. Technically, Taty won it in his fourth year, but he arrived in NYC in the summer of 2018, so full years only.

Players eliminated: Lewis Morgan, Josef Martinez, Christian Espinoza, and Diego Rubio.

4. Be a PK taker on their team

Penalties are “easy” chances to add to the goal tally. They are converted 76% of the time. Since 2012, about 1 of every 5 goals scored by the eventual Golden Boot winner have been penalties. Everyone scored multiple penalties except for Rossi in 2020 (COVID season) and BWP in 2016 (NYRB only took 2 PKs all year).

Players eliminated: Giorgos Giakoumakis, Cucho :(, Enzo Copetti, Mikael Uhre, Dante Vanzeir, and Leo Campana.

5. Team has to make the playoffs

Every winner has been on a playoff team except for one. Rossi in the 2020 COVID season. And that LAFC team had excellent xG numbers. The xG said they were more like title contenders than being eliminated from playoff contention. Yes, this is retrospective, but at least we want players on good teams. We need 20+ goals to win the Golden Boot, which is difficult if the team is outside the playoff line.

Players eliminated: all STLSC, Fire, DC United, and Whitecaps players. Yes, it scares me to eliminate Taxi Fountas.

6. No Back-to-Back Winners

Sorry, Hany.

Player eliminated: Hany Mukhtar.

Players who Passed the Gauntlet.

With that, let’s take a look at the players remaining…

Sebastian Driussi – a very valid contender. But it his xG numbers worry me. Last year he had 22G but only 16xG. At 10-1, the xG enough for me to pass.

Daniel Gazdag – another valid candidate with the same issue as Druissi – 22G off 16xG plus 7 penalties. Penalties from year-to-year are random. So, a no for me.

Denis Bouanga – maybe ambitious that I included him as a PK taker for LAFC, but I don’t trust Vela to stay healthy all year and Arango is gone. So, that leaves an opportunity for Bouanga. He was excellent in his first half year (.6xG/90). That xG is just below average (most winners are about .7xG/90) but he only scored once. So, 20-1 is a fair price and buy-low for one of the best attacks in MLS. And my pick to win the Golden Boot this year.

Federico Bernardeschi – the “other” Italian in Toronto, but Bernardeschi was more dynamic than Insigne. Plus, he took PKs last year and will be on some FKs. However, I would want longer odds than 25-1 to confidently back him.

Luiz Araujo – positive xG regression potential can help Luiz score more goals this year. With 9xG but only 4G last year, Araujo might be a double-digit goal scorer this campaign. The Atlanta United attack is improved this year, but will Giakoumakis take goals away? That and the transfor rumors will keep me off the Brazilian.

Karol Swiderski – one of the few “new” PK takers in the league. With Christian Fuchs’ retirement, Karol has been taking the PKs for CLTFC in preseason. Plus, he was on free kicks last year. I think 50-1 is a great price for an attack that should greatly improve after sputtering under MAR before Lattanzio took over.

Ercan Kara – The Orlando attack is another that should greatly improve with two DPs going into their second year. Ojeda should create tons of chances, as long as Kara can finish them, I could see him score 17+ goals. At 66-1, he is a long shot worth a sprinkle.

Week 1 preview will be up before Friday morning. LFG!