Matchday 6 Picks and Preview

The international players return to their club teams this weekend and let’s hope the funds into the account return, too.

FCC v Inter Miami

To me, the key to this game will be the Gregore injury. The club captain suffered a foot injury that will keep him out 6 months, and he was the most important player in Miami’s midfield. Miami’s defense has been poor all year giving up +1.0xG in each game. What sticks out to me is the competition Miami have faced so far. The Laudey-Boys versed some of the fiercest attacks in the all the land: Montreal, Toronto, and Chicago (jokes!) Now, they travel to Cincy.

The River Kit boys have created +1.5xG in 4 out of their 5 games to start the year. Seattle was the one game that FCC failed to reach that mark. Brandon Vazquez scored his first goal of the year last week on a rebound, a typical striker’s goal. Lucho Acosta should be able to run the midfield without Gregore on the other side. Barreal has been excellent getting forward from his LWB position and contributing to the attack. He will likely go up against Yedlin.

Colorado v LAFC

From watching the games, the Rapids look like wooden spoon candidates. But their underlying numbers are decent, they just can’t score. The ‘Pids have created 6.5xG yet have only found the net twice. Last year’s leading scorer, Diego Rubio played 45 minutes with Chile, so he’s finding his game shape. But don’t worry, my guy Kevin Cabral linked up with Mikey Barrios to find the equalizer in Austin last week. Put a line through the 4-0 Seattle loss, and the other results are respectable (and they should’ve won 1 or 2 of those games, too).

The LB spot for the Rapids is a massive black hole. Gersbach, Markanich, and Beitashour have all had their chance at the position. Now, whoever Fraser selects goes up against Vela. Fun! The Rapids obviously struggled with Seattle’s dynamism and ball movement on the wings and LAFC have the best winger pairing in the league. Plus, LAFC have shown they are dangerous on set pieces, with two goals from dead balls already. The Rapids have conceded twice from set plays, as they sort out their defensive issues.

The total only being 2.75 really stands out. LAFC could score 3 themselves, and I think Colorado can get one at home.

I can’t believe Bouanga played (and scored the game winner) after flying halfway across the world from Gabon to LAX, only landing a few hours before kickoff. Dude is a baller!

Vancouver v Montreal

Like Colorado, Vancouver have had an unlucky start to the season. 0W-2L-3D but are exactly neutral on xGD. They really deserved three points in Minneapolis last week. The newest ‘Cap DP, Sergio Cordova, is on the injury list. So, that leaves the striker job open for Brian White who has failed to score from 2.3xG. White is notorious for scoring goals in bunches; he just needs to see one go in. It’s no surprise that Ryan Gauld is at the top of the leaderboard for progressive passes. The Scotsman and Gressel do most of the creation for Sartini’s side. In this game, they will look to expose Montreal on the counter attack and be comfortable letting Montreal dominate possession.

In my season preview, I talked about Vancouver’s weakness at GK. Well, shortly after post they signed Takaoka. He has been excellent both in shot stopping and playing with his feet. Plus, he is above average in stopping crosses which will be important Saturday.

Montreal have been poor to start the year, yet somehow stole 3 points against Philly two weekends ago. Thanks, Carranza! Coming off a bye negates some of the impact of traveling to British Columbia. But in their three roads games, Montreal have conceded +1.5xG in all three. Losada-ball will see them dominate the ball in the middle third of the field, but I don’t see how they will create a whole lot of dangerous chances.

It slightly worries me that this match will turn into a crossing competition. Both of these sides are top 5 in crosses per game (24 for Montreal and 26 for Vancouver). And we all know that crossing is equivalent to running it on 1st down in the NFL, not the most ideal strategy.

Plays

  • FCC ML -135
  • Colorado o2.75
  • Vancouver +120
  • Potential adds: Toronto, Orlando, Galaxy u2.5, SJ u2.5
  • Follow me on twitter @the4thDP for official adds.

Fantasy

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