The league-wide trend of lower scoring games continued last week. Just 2.4 goals/game thus far, and it really makes me second guess any over play for the foreseeable future. Let’s take a look at Matchday 8, including an El Trafico and Cascadia Cup match!
Fire v Philly
Have the Fire been sneaky good??!!? With only one loss through 6 games, the Fire have the 5th best xG in the East. Granted, the one loss was to Philly on the road, but the Fire created 1.4xG and failed to score. Ezra Hendrickson’s second year impact seems to have made a difference on the defensive end with the Fire improving from 1.4xGA/90 to 1.0xGA/90 this year. Bringing in Czichos
Chris Mueller returned to the league from a failed transfer to Hibs and regained the form he showed at Orlando City. Mueller makes great off ball movements from the wing to get in dangerous positions. With 0.33xG+xA/90 so far, Mueller makes you forget the Fire have missed Shaqiri with injuries.
The Union are coming off an intense CCL match against Atlas. Philly were able to advance thanks to 2 goals from Julian Carranza. It’s clear they are prioritizing CCL to match Seattle’s history last year. In MLS, the Union are 0W-0D-3L on the road with -0.33xG/90 (compared to +0.65xG/90 at home). I would expect significant rotation after playing in Guadalajara and having to travel immediately to Chicago for Saturday’s game.
Timbers v Sounders
The Timbers have been significantly underwhelming, which I talked about last week. Some of that is due to injuries, and losing Eryk Williamson earlier this week to an ACL tear certainly doesn’t help that.
Portland’s inability to control the ball is a real issue especially against this Seattle team.
Historically, this rivalry is dominated by the road team. The home side only has 2 wins since 2018. Fortunately for Portland, the Sounders might be without midfielder Joao Paulo again as he suffered hamstring tightness and missed last week’s match. Without JP, I would heavily consider an over with more openness in midfield, Seattle having Ruidiaz, Heber, and JoMo as options in the #9 role, and it’s a rivalry match primed for #MLSAfterDark craziness.
LAG v LAFC
El Trafico!
Similar to Cascadia, one team has been great and the other mighty poor. No one is giving the Galaxy any chance here. At least, Chicharito returned last week for 35 minutes of action. He is obviously a significant puzzle in the Galaxy’s attack. An attack that has only scored 3 goals from 8.3xG in his absence. Even through LAFC have arguably been the more talented team throughout this derby, LAG are 7W-5D-5L.
When you look at who the Galaxy have played, you basically sort by PPDA and scroll to the bottom and there they all are…except Seattle (and now LAFC). And despite giving up two goals to Seattle early, they were in that match. The Galaxy want to play tons of short passes to create attacks and have the quality in midfield and build-up positioning to beat even a well-organized press.
I have preached how good Bouanga is all year, so will save some space here to talk about LAFC’s outside backs. Palacios on the left and Hollingshead or Pacienca on the right have been outstanding. Palacio’s defensive numbers have been excellent. This allows for Bouanga to stay high and wide on the LW. The right back spot gets the freedom to move into the attack. This pushes Vela inside where he is most dangerous on his left foot to shoot, cross, or play a reverse ball to the overlapping defender. The Galaxy defense and young Jalen Neal will certainly be tested Sunday.
FWIW: 13 of the 17 meetings have had 3+ goals scored.
Plays
- Fire pk -115
- NYRB u2.5 -110 – RB offense doesn’t create and HH suspended
- Austin u2.75 -108 – ‘Caps off CCL but very solid in MLS so far
- DC +0.5 -120 – why are Club de Foot favored by this much?
- Toronto pk -112
- Rapids +0.25 +105
Fantasy
The4thDP 
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