Some more midweek madness as there is no rest for the weary in this league. The schedule makers were particularly unkind to NYRB, Charlotte, and FCC as they all make cross-country trips after their game Saturday.
Miami v NYRB
Like I said, the story here is that Red Bulls have to make one of the longest road trips in any North American professional league, Seattle to Miami. This impacts the red half of NYC more as their high-press, energy-drink style soccer requires elite-level fitness. Unsurprisingly, NRYB rank 2nd in Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) and force the most high turnovers. I expect Troy Lesesne to rotate the lineup significantly after the long travel.
Additionally, NYRB are 0-4-4 on the road thus far. Will their first win come after a 3,000 mile road trip?
Miami have had a disappointing season and Phil Neville is certainly feeling the heat.
But when Miami goes up against a high pressing team, they can handle themselves. Miami have defeated the Crew (3rd in PPDA), Atlanta (4th) and Philadelphia (6th) already this year.
Now, there isn’t much else that leads me to Miami. But, the travel situation and NYRB’s struggles away from Red Bull Arena lead me to back The Herons.
Philly v CLTFC
Let’s look at the xG chart from Philly v. DC on May 17. DC are the top line and Philly are the bottom line. If you had to guess what minute Jose Martinez entered the game for Philly, what would you guess? All 90′? 45′? 60′? 80′?
The correct answer is 60! It’s pretty stark to see how Philly’s D struggled before Martinez entered the field conceding about 1.2xGA at home. That was his first game back from injury, and his absence is certainly a reason for Philly’s defensive struggles thus far. The Union are conceding 1.25xGA/90 this year after being closer to 1.0xGA/90 in 2022. The Union are +0.6xG/90 improved with Jose on the field.
Stop me if you have heard this before…another game where CLT create a lot and another game where Copetti didn’t see the field (due to injury). Both of their best games by xG created are without the first-year DP. I don’t know if he will be back by this game Wednesday night, but CLTFC lack the depth pieces to be dangerous in attack.
The trade for Justin Meram has proved valuable as he has been involved a goal in 5 straight games. But, I hesitate to think the 34 year-old will play all 90′ for the second time in four days. Plus, CLT have to travel from LA to Philadelphia on the short week. I can’t see Charlotte’s road success continue as their depth will be tested at Subaru Park.
Plays
- Miami pk -102
- NYCFC -0.25 -108. FCC another terrible travel situation going from Denver to NYC.
- Philly BTTS-NO -122 / Philly Shutout Win +170
- Minny +0.25 -100. Austin struggling, Minny will look to hold the fort for a point on the road.
- SKC u2.5 -105 – FCD with a sneaky Top 3 D in the West. Conceding just 1.03xGA/90.
Fantasy
The4thDP 
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