Matchweek 17

Although it is technically an international window, MLS stops for no one. It is a small slate with just six games this weekend but let’s take a look at some of them.

NYCFC v Crew

Surprisingly, NYCFC have not won a game since April 22 (0W-6L-3D). Nick Cushing has not lived up to NYCFC’s standards after Ronny Delia led The Pigeons to winning MLS Cup in 2021. Under Cushing, NYCFC average 1.4 points per game while under Delia’s management they averaged 1.8 points per game. Similar to Montreal this year, NYCFC struggled with roster construction after turning over the roster in 2022. Taty Castellanos and Alex Callens, both key pieces of the 2021 team, left for Spain and NYCFC have struggled to find a replacement (more so for Taty than Callens). The drop in quality shows in the attacking numbers as they dropped from 1.7xG./90 to 1.1xG/90 in the last 2 seasons.

Yet, whenever NYCFC host games on the short field in Yankee Stadium, it seems to boost their performance.

It should be noted NYCFC only lose CB Maxime Chanot to international duty.

The Crew are arguably the most fun team to watch in the league. Their games have goals on both ends. With the quality of Zela and Cucho up top and an inexperienced backline and Nancy’s playing style, it should not be a surprise. But, Zelarayan is on international duty (with Armenia, which is always funny as he is native to Argentina but his dad is from Armenian descent) this week as is a huge blow.

But that opens the door for Cucho who has shown massive improvement in his passing under Nancy. So far this year, Cucho has .32xAG/90 which is about double his next best xAG in 5 years of data. He definitely has taken on more of a creator role compared to his goal-scoring position in Caleb Porter’s system last year.

SKC v LAFC

The downside of having elite players is they go on international duty and that is the case for LAFC. 4 key starters will be unavailable as well as Opoku who received a red card in their midweek match. The key question is how much will Carlos Vela play tonight? Vela played a full 90 minutes Wednesday night in a 0-1 loss to Houston and often gets rotated in double gameweeks.

SKC are now healthy and are scoring goals. With Pulido and Kinda back after long-term injuries, SKC are undefeated in their last 4 games. But their defense continues to struggle, allowing 1+xGA in 11 consecutive games.

I think SKC can win here given LAFC’s absences and their turn in form.

Plays

  • DC u2.75 -110
  • SKC ML +130 / SKC ML + o1.5 goals +175
  • Timbers +0.25 -128

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