Before I go into the team breakdown, let’s look at the entire conference (and it’s a loaded conference).

Here are the current odds to win the Eastern Conference playoffs. (As of February 14).

First, let’s look at the updated market values for the clubs. No surprise, Inter Miami is well ahead of the rest of the conference. Now MLS has more parity than many of the European Big 5 Leagues, so market value is not as definitive of a predictor of future league position, but it does give us a good indication of how teams could perform. Two teams that stand out from the difference in their odds and their market value – Atlanta and NYCFC.

Atlanta United

Atlanta United is another team that has a high-quality attack but questions at the back. Thiago Almada, Giorgos Giakoumakis, and Saba Lobzhanidze are 3 excellent DPs. GG ended the year with 0.63xG/90 which was 2nd in the league. Almada tied for first in xAG. And Saba came into the squad hot with 7 goal contributions in 9 games.

The issue is Almada is almost guaranteed to move to Europe over the summer transfer window. How will Atlanta replace his goal scoring contributions?

At the back, Miles Robinson left for the Supporters’ Shield winners. Robinson is elite in the air and great on the ball. But Atlanta took a step to replace him by signing Stian Gregersen from Bordeaux. (And maybe found someone better???)

I also love the Dax McCarty signing. Dax is a perennial winner in the league and is consistent. Signings like Dax and Darlington Nagbe will go unnoticed by most. But they are key pieces to build a championship roster.

If this roster was in place last year, I would have loved to bet on Atlanta. But with Almada all but off to Europe, it makes it difficult to put money behind this team without him (or a known replacement). There are parallels to the Crew team last year who lost Zelarayan in the summer transfer window. Replaced him with Diego Rossi and went on to win MLS Cup.

Charlotte FC

The house is clean and ready for Dean Smith to decorate it however he likes. DPs, Karol Swiderski and Kamil Jozwiak, were sent overseas along with a center back Corujo. Ultimately, Charlotte will only have about half of all minutes played from the last two years on this season’s roster.

New manager, Dean Smith (get ready for corny basketball jokes, ha!) has been successful in England at Walsall, Brentford, Aston Villa, and Norwich. He has a track record for emphasizing player development, and that shows with most notably Jack Grealish and Ollie Watkins, plus other dependable EPL players nowadays. His player development will be key as Charlotte begins to promote players from their MLS NEXT PRO team, Crown Legacy, who finished 1st in their division last year.

Nikola Petkovic is one of those players. Petkovic, 20, was signed for $3.1M last year but will have trouble finding playing time in Charlotte’s plethora of midfielders. Arfield, Dejaegere, Westwood, Bronico, and potentially Bender will all occupy those 3 positions. But are any the elite-level quality you desire to be successful in this league? Arfield, Dejaegere, and Westwood are all on the wrong side of 30 which isn’t great. So, for a team that created the 2nd-fewest xG in the league and losing 2 attacking starters seems not ideal.

But why Ben Bender was limited to under 1,000 minutes last year is beyond me. I believe the former #1 SuperDraft pick can add 20+ goal contributions if given the time. With Jozwiak out the door, the right wing position seems to be Ben’s to lose.

Another DP creative player is necessary for CLT to make the playoffs. There have been rumors both in South America and Europe.

🇺🇾 Charlotte FC's pursuit of Uruguay wonderkid Luciano Rodriguez, per sources:

– Talks real & advanced (1st reported @RyanTolmich)
– Nothing agreed yet
– Player open to Charlotte. Feyenoord still in too
– Would be among biggest transfers in MLS history https://t.co/YIlszUQdXx

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) February 15, 2024

There is a path for Dean Smith to turn this team around. However, I also had hope in Lattanzio and MAR to no avail. So, let’s just hope the owner can contain himself during this team’s games.

Chicago Fire

Frank Klopas becomes full-time manager of the Fire after his interim stint in 2023. For the club that has not made the playoffs since 2017, it is once again an uphill climb for the Fire.

They brought in DP striker Hugo Cuypers from KAA Gent in Belgium to lead the line at Soldier Field. Cuypers, 27, seems to be an all-round forward, which is the first time the Fire have had a #9 of his caliber since Nemanja Nikolić.

However, the success of this team will ultimately rely on the 3 midfielders and 2 center backs. Brian Gutierrez, 20, will step into a vital role of being the primary central creator for the Fire. Is he good? Yes! Is he good enough right now to be the team’s primary chance creator? Idk!

At the back, the Fire added Danish CB Tobias Salquist who will pair alongside captain Rafa Czichos. Czichos is solid when it comes to reading the play, anticipating, and blocking passes, but he is not great on the ball. I believe Salquist is slightly better. However, I have my doubts any high press or any quick striker against these two.

I do love Andrew Gutman (as all MLS sickos do). Gutman arrives from the Rapids to play LB. He will bomb forward on the wing and get quality chances into the penalty area. If so, I have a hard time seeing how the Fire can cover that space effectively.

Ultimately, this leads me to the Fire as an “over team.” If Klopas takes the handbrake off, the Fire could be in tennis match games. Oh, and I didn’t even mention the diminutive Xherdan Shaqiri.

Columbus Crew

I love you, Wilfred Nancy!!!!!!

The best coach in the league. Cashed the Crew futures ticket I placed on him last year. And a lot of the same team returns in 2024.

I bet the Crew last year for the same reasons I mentioned earlier in this post. #9, #10, CDM, and CB. Cucho, Diego Rossi (then Lucas Zelarayan), Darlington Nagbe (plus Aidan Morris), and Rudy Camacho (then Miloš Degenek).

Ya, so ummm is this good??? (Maybe, every club should go after players on teams that just got relegated to the English Championship.)

The Crew did lose RWB Julian Gressel to Miami over the offseason, but they seemed to have replaced him well with Colombian Marino Hinestroza. The 21-year-old from Pachuca will dominate the right flank and give the Crew another attacking threat. Plus, anytime you can replace a guy reaching his 30s with a 21-year-old, I would consider that great business.

It is hard to see how Nancy will not lead this Crew side to another effective season. However, if I were to point to something it would be can 33-year-old Darlington play another season of 2,500+ minutes?

In my opinion, the Crew are priced appropriately, second behind Inter Miami in the East.

DC United

Hiring a CSO with an appreciation for data in the scouting process is always a plus. Ally Mackay takes over that role for DC and he brings in Troy Lesesne after NYRB decided not to promote him from his interim manager role.

Homegrown player, Theo Ku-Dipietro, broke out on the scene last year and is rumored to be in the captaincy debate for this season. Ku-DiPi was a lone bright light on some terrible Loudoun United teams, so it is great to see him continue the success into the big leagues. Partnered with Benteke, Ku-DiPi could put up 15+ G+A in 2024.

A worrying part of DC’s roster is the #10 role. Brazilian Gabriel Pirani was brought in to play the role, but the 20-year-old did not deliver. He was in the 1st percentile for xAG and his profile as a #10 looks bleak. Could he improve in his second year? Possibly. Not likely.

Adding MLS veteran Aaron Herrera to the backline is a good move. Regardless, the depth of the defense comes into question very quickly.

Mackay and Lesesne onboard seem like a good foundation for the future, but I don’t think that will translate to success in 2024 for DC.

FC Cincinnati

A real ‘started from the bottom, now we here’ type story for FCC. After years of being in the basement, Pat Noonan led this squad to a Supporters’ Shield in 2023. Using the roster building rule of thumb (#9, #10, CDM, CB), they hit all the marks again. Even after Brandon Vasquez transferred to Monterrey, FCC has Aaron Boupendza as the DP #9.

Boupendza arrived in the summer and immediately made a contribution. With 5 goals in 10 games and, more impressively, 0.81xG/90 Boupendza is a Golden Boot candidate in 2024.

If there are question marks around FCC this year, I would say it is in the midfield. Last year’s breakout star, Alvaro Barreal, held out of preseason training in hopes of a European transfer. That did not come to fruition, and Barreal is now back training with the team. However, a summer move seems likely for the LWB that created countless, high-quality chances for them last year. For a team that plays a 5-3-2 / 3-5-2, there isn’t much depth at the wingback positions behind Barreal.

Yerson Mosquera was another great addition to the 2023 team. His ability to be athletic and breakup passes stopped many opposing attacks. But he was on loan and has returned to Europe. FCC only replaced him with a USMNT and two-time MLS Best XI player – Miles Robinson.

As long as FCC remain healthy, it is difficult to see them anywhere but towards the top of the East at the end of the year.

Inter Miami

Inter Miami 2016 FC Barcelona are clear favorites to win the conference and as low as +250 to win MLS Cup. Messi took the league (and Leagues Cup) by storm after he and friends arrived in the summer. Well, Busquets and Jordi Alba weren’t enough as Luis Suarez has joined the boys in Fort Lauderdale. Suarez, 37, is coming off an excellent season in Brazil. He led Gremio to a 2nd place finish with 17G/11A. With Josef Martinez off to Montreal, Suarez seems to be the striker paired with Leo in Tata’s new 5-3-2 formation.

On the ball, this team will be excellent. But how will they look off the ball or in defensive transition? That will ultimately be the key to Miami’s success. Suarez and Messi will do little without the ball (as expected). Busquets will work off the ball, but he’s slow. Gregore would be a good fit, but the club may need to find another spot for him in order to make the salary cap. The other options are teenagers (Cremaschi, Gomez, and Ruiz).

Another, not as discussed, weakness of this Miami team is their goalkeeping. If the midfield can be easily bypassed, Miami will face plenty of shots. Callender was poor last year and hasn’t been great thus far in preseason. Including getting chipped from 70 yards away against Al-Hilal.

Ultimately, Miami should be very good with their talent, but will it all come together? I’ll wait and see (and enjoy watching Leo).

Montreal CF

Montreal’s experiment with Hernan Losada as manager came to an abrupt conclusion after the season. It was an interesting appointment in the first place given Losada’s well-known style is contrary to Montreal’s style under previous managers, including Wilfred Nancy.

Olivier Renard made it clear in his end-of-season presser that the philosophical differences led to Losada’s departure. Montreal brought in Laurent Courtois as the new manager, and his style seems to suit more what Renard wants – slow buildup with possession.

“When we decided to give the chance to Hernan, there was the philosophy of the club, the way that we want to play, the way that we want to develop a few players — altogether I think we didn’t reach what we wanted.”

TheStar

Plus, Courtois has had success as a manager – both in the US and abroad. Most recently, Courtois led Crew 2 to MLS NEXT PRO championship in 2022 and runner-up finish in 2023.

I mentioned this in my preview of Montreal last year, but they lost their most impactful contributors to their 2022 success in 2023. And after this offseason basically everyone from the 2022 team is no longer in Montreal.

Montreal have brought in a handful of players from around the world, but they come with questions.

Striker Matias Coccaro comes in from Argentina but is not a goalscorer. Josef Martinez is old. Dominik Yankov (from Ludogorets) is coming off a knee surgery last year. Interestingly in 60 games in Bulgaria, Yankov has 14 goals and 0 assists. As a #10, that is certainly unique.

Further, Montreal’s sole Designated Player, Victor Wanyama, is on the wrong side of 30. At least under Courtois’s game model, Wanyama will do less chasing than under Losada. Other than Victor, Montreal are fairly young. If you believe in them, the reasoning has to be that you believe in Courtois and his ability to up-level players reaching their peak ages, players like Joel Waterman.

Nashville SC

Despite making the playoffs and the Leagues Cup Final, it seems this is a make-or-break year for Gary Smith. Nashville fans want something for all of their success and might have enough with Smith’s low possession, direct game model if a trophy doesn’t come in 2024.

Everything in Nashville begins and ends with Hany. Mukhtar is a star in the second striker role. Has Nashville finally found Hany a strike partner? They hope DP Sam Surridge can improve in his 2nd year with the club. Surridge and Mukhtar fit into the classic Men in Blazers bit that the ideal striker pairing is a ‘small’ and a ‘tall,’ but it is unclear if Surridge can be the 10-15 goal scorer Nashville need.

As mentioned in the Atlanta preview, Nashville let Dax McCarty walk away to a conference rival. But replaced him with Dru Yearwood from NYRB. It will be interesting to see how Yearwood moves from the RB system to the less extreme (more short passes, longer buildups) Nashville system.

Nashville is an old team, even with letting Dax go. And they have not taken steps to get younger this offseason.

The solid back four – Lovitz, Zimmerman, Maher, and Moore – set the floor of this Nashville team at the playoff line. The quartet are organized, great in the air, and in possession (when asked). But with now half of the four 30+, Nashville has to begin thinking about a succession plan. Lovitz, 32, was Nashville’s more progressive passer in 2023. He played 93% of all MLS minutes. Can he sustain that this year?

Like I said, with the defense, Hany, and Smith’s game model the floor of this Nashville team is high. But they are in search of a trophy, and I am skeptical that it will come in 2024.

New England Revolution

The Revs went through a lot last year. They lost the best GK in the league mid-season. Their coach was put on administrative leave in September. After losing just 4 games before those two events, New England went 2W-2D-6L under interim manager Clint Peay.

Now, Caleb Porter takes the reigns in Foxborough. Porter has plenty of MLS experience with managerial stints in Portland and Columbus. Yet, sees plenty of variance in his team’s performance. He can miss the playoffs (like he’s done 5 times) or get you to MLS Cup (twice).

Fortunately, Porter arrives with a great squad in place – especially in the midfield. The Revs are led by captain and former MLS MVP Carles Gil who can do everything in the #10 role. Mark Anthony Kaye arrived halfway through last year. Matt Polster might be the most underrated player in the league (Dax McCarty-esque). And teenager Noel Buck was the team’s breakout star last year.

The defense is solid, too. But I question the depth pieces. The Revs offloaded some of the older parts of the Arena squad, notably Omar Gonzalez. And added Jonathan Mensah, who played under Porter in Columbus. Henry Kessler missed most of the 2023 year due to injury, a significant blow to the Revs backline. The UVA defender broke out in their 2022 campaign. The more minutes Kessler plays instead of club legend Andrew Farrell, the better.

The wing positions are great for the Revs, too. Especially, if they are able to land former Dynamo player Alberth Elis in a transfer back to MLS.

There are two key question marks on this Revs squad (and they are massively important) – a #9 and the GK. DP #9, Giacomo Vironi, has been disappointing in his year-and-a-half in MLS (just 0.4 xG/90). The Revs need someone to be consistent in the #9 role. Former DP, Gustavo Bou (aka La Pantera), left the club. And it certainly won’t come from 31-year-old Bobby Wood.

The GK question is harder to assess. The Revs brought in Henrich Ravas from Poland to be the #1. There is little on Ravas, but if you trust the Revs’ ability to scout great GKs – Matt Turner and Dorde Petrovic – then there should be faith that Ravas can step up comfortably.

Like many of the teams in the East outside of Inter Miami, it wouldn’t shock me if the Revs finish anywhere from 2 to 9.

NYCFC

NYCFC are an interesting team coming into 2024. They have high expectations and their payroll fits that. They were also the top underperformer on their expected goals last year by 10 goals (-4 GD vs. +6 xGD). For the poor performance and different play style than typical NYCFC managers, Nick Cushing finds himself on the hot seat going into 2024.

From ASA, NYCFC are not pressing as much and are passing less directly under Cushing. Which is confusing given City Football Group, like the Red Bull Group, teams all play the same style – pressing and quick to attack.

From the back, they are led by Brazilian DP Thiago Martins. Outside of Martins, there are questions. Birk Risa was signed last summer but wasn’t great outside of his aerial presence. Mitja Ilenic and Tayvian Gray gave them some progression down the right. Down the left, Braian Cufré returned to Spain from his loan. So, the options become bleak – Kevin O’Toole or Chris McFarlane (17 year old).

The midfield is very solid. Parks, Sands, Perea, and Santi Rodriguez are all ready for a breakout season. But Sands and Parks have an injury history. Santi could go to Europe sooner rather than later. They could also utilize Sands in the defense, but I think his best position is at the #6 role.

The forward line has some questions, but risks that I think are good swings. Monsef Bakrar came into the #9 role midseason and put up 0.69xG/90 (nice!) in 10 matches. That’s Golden Boot level across a full campaign.

Hannes Wolf is a winger that has the pedigree of a great player but was hampered by injuries the last two seasons. Wolf played first team minutes for RB Salzburg, RB Leipzig, Swansea, and Monchengladbach. All good. And oh yeah, he is only 24. A great risk-reward potential for NYCFC if he can stay healthy.

The Talles Magno as the #9 experiment failed, leading to the signing on Bakrar last summer. But on the wing, he is pretty good. And he’s another player that has played for a while, so you might forget he is just 21.

NYCFC were the draw kings last year 9W-14D-11L. With only 3 losses after the Leagues Cup break, I think this team can surprise people. (It might just take a new leader for it to happen).

NY Red Bulls

Once again, a new man is on the touchline of Red Bull Arena. Sandro Schwartz becomes the fourth manager (including interims) in 4 years.

The Red Bulls were 3rd in the East in xGD last year, despite squeaking into the playoffs. They underperformed by 15 goals (-3 GD vs. +12 xGD). And most of that was attacking related (thanks, Tom Barlow!), scoring just 36 goals from 46.3xG.

The big signing over the winter was Swedish player Emil Forsberg from RB Leipzig. The 32-year-old saw his minutes dwindle in the Bundesliga and decided to transfer to the American Red Bull club. He hit the ground running with this 70-yard goal in preseason.

Will he do enough to switch the xG gods into RB’s favor? Probably not, but Dante Vanzeir enters his second year with the club, and Corey Burke is about a 0.5xG/90 striker in his 6 MLS seasons.

In typical Red Bull fashion, the midfield is young, but experienced? Frankie Amaya and Daniel Edelman have been around the block despite being 23 and 20, respectively. The young guys will have to control the game and the team’s press in order to get the Red Bulls back into the playoffs in a deep Eastern Conference.

John Tolkin might be my favorite player in the league. Despite sporting ridiculous hairstyles, the local kid is one of the best creators down the left wing. I will love to see how he and Forsberg team up to torment the opponent’s right back.

Ultimately, I think the Red Bulls are in the big group of clubs that can finish from 2nd to 10th. But will likely find themselves closer to the latter than the former.

Orlando City

The BigDunc transfer saga was a thing of theater. As two English clubs fought for him but not filing paperwork properly left the Creighton player on a plane back to Orlando. Yet, Orlando went on to sign another striker. Luis Muriel arrives from Atalanta as a longer-term option, with McGuire certainly leaving in the summer.

Despite finishing 2nd, Orlando had a negative xGD last year. Most of that was McGuire scoring 13 goals off just 5.3xG.

The defense lost a massive piece as Antonio Carlos left for Fluminese. But the club have tried to replace him with David Brekalo from the Norwegian club Viking FK. But with Pedro Gallese in net for Orlando, I am less worried about the defense and who will create the chances this year.

Facundo Torres seems to be the man Orlando will rely on. Both him and Ivan Angulo stepped up their performance in their second year at Orlando. Neither are elite at creating high quality shots for their teammates.

Longtime Seattle Sounder, Nico Lodeiro comes in for depth at the #10 position. But if Orlando wants to be a title contender, Martin Ojeda needs to provide elite-level creativity. I think that is certainly possible as he makes a second-year jump.

Orlando is another team that is in the midpack of the East. With good finishing and luck, they can compete with Inter Miami. With injuries and poor luck, they could find themselves on the playoff bubble.

Philadelphia Union

The Union return 100% of their Raw Goals Added value as calculated by American Soccer Analysis. For a team that dreams of a trophy, the Sons of Ben are running it back in 2024.

European clubs were interested in Kai Wagner and Julian Carranza, but alas nothing was signed, and the pair stay at Subaru Park. Thus, no surprises from this Union side. For the third year in a row, they run out basically the same XI.

The most interesting project will be the development of young midfielder, Jack McGlynn. The kid has represented the USYNT and already has 3,000 MLS minutes at 20 years old. On the ball, he is elite. His left foot can pick out a pass like the best #10’s in the league or bend in a free kick. He has the potential to be a star on the national team, so this year will be vital for his development and potential transfer to Europe.

On a broader scale, I will be more pessimistic about this Union team than in the past. Last year they overperformed their xG by 11 goals (+16 GD vs. +5.3 xGD). This team has had two years to get silverware and came up short. Maybe their championship years are behind them? Maybe the shop window is now closed? Or maybe this is the last year?

Toronto FC

Oh, Toronto. We close out the East on the team with the most internal drama in the league. Well, at least last year. John Herdman comes in to replace Bob Bradley (and Michael has left, too). Herdman has the massive task on his hands to get Toronto’s DPs, Bernardeschi, Insigne and Osorio, bought into his game model. From the preseason results, they seem to have done so as the Italians both scored in a friendly victory against Nashville. (And we know preseason means everything)

Herdman is the perfect man for this difficult job. He led the Canadian WNT to two bronze medals and the Canadian MNT to their first World Cup appearance in 36 years. He is the lead of Canadian soccer and now takes his first shot at the club level. Look for Herdman to give plenty of Toronto’s talented youth products a shot including Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty and Lazar Stefanovic.

The defense that allowed 54xGA in 2023 has little to no improvements in 2024. That’s a massive worry. Herdman can only do so much through structure and formation. The CB pairing of Shane O’Neill and Sigurd Rosted doesn’t do it for me.

Deybi Flores is an interesting new addition to the #6 role. The 27-year-old Honduran was a Whitecaps product before going to play in his home country, Greece, and Hungary. He should give the Reds a mobile CDM for the first time in a few years.

In MLS, the margins between teams are finite. Especially from year-to-year, one new player or manager change can make a massive impact. Just like how Houston came on in 2023. Now, I am not saying that Toronto will win a trophy or make the playoffs, but I trust Herdman to get this team on the same page. So, they may not be as bad as everyone thinks and could catch FCC in a surprise spot in Matchweek 1.

Projected Standings

Ultimately, there are 3 tiers in the East: Inter Miami, #2-#10, and the bottom dwellers. It would be a real shock for someone to cross tiers.

1. Inter Miami
2. Crew
3. FC Cincinnati
4. Atlanta
5. NYCFC
6. Orlando
7. Philadelphia
8. NE Revolution
9. NYRB
10. Nashville
11. Montreal
12. Charlotte
13. DC United
14. Toronto
15. Chicago Fire