Sometimes it’s easier to cross off players than identify the singular winner with awards. So, that’s what I will do here as we go through a gauntlet crossing off players that fail to hit each criteria. This is my favorite article to write all year.

I am going for FOUR straight Golden Boot winners. Last year, I wrote why Denis Bouanga will win the Golden Boot. The year before, I hit Hany Mukhtar. The year before, I hit Taty Castellanos. The pressure is on.

First, let’s look at the odds board (as of February 20).

1. Have Designated Player status and be an international player

All of the last 10 Golden Boot winners were a DP for their team. So, we are looking for an elite player. Further, no American has won the Golden Boot since Wondo in 2012. DeRosario was the lone Canadian to ever win it in 2011. Basically, since the league began signing elite, level DPs those are they players who win this award. So, we’re looking for an elite, international player.

Players eliminated: Luis Suarez, Jesus Ferreira, Jordan Morris, Jeremy Ebobisse, Brian White, Daniel Salloi, Diego Rubio, Dejan Joveljic, Josef Martinez, Amine Bassi, Gyasi Zardes, Damir Kreilach, Christian Ramirez, Amahal Pellegrino, Duncan McGuire

2. Be between 22 and 30 years old

The youngest Golden Boot winner was Rossi in 2020. The oldest Golden Boot winner in this time was BWP’s second time winning in 2016 at 30-years-old.

Bye, bye, Messi and Suarez! The Inter Miami duo are both quickly eliminated along with newcomers Emil Forsberg and Luis Muriel.

Players eliminated: Leo Messi, Luis Muriel, Teemu Puuki, Alan Pulido, Christian Benteke, Emil Forsberg, Lorenzo Insigne, Raul Ruidiaz, Carles Gil, Johnny Russell

3. Have no more than 3 full years of MLS experience

Interestingly, every Golden Boot winner accomplished the feat in their first, second, or third full year in the league. Technically, Taty won it in his fourth year, but he arrived in NYC in the summer of 2018, so full years only.

Player eliminated: Hany Mukhtar

4. Be a designated penalty kick taker on their team

Penalties are “easy” chances to add to the goal tally. Penalty kicks are successfully scored 76% of the time. Since 2012, about 1 of every 5 goals scored by the eventual Golden Boot winner have been penalties.

Players eliminated: Dante Vanzeir, Hugo Cuypers, Julian Carranza, Leo Campana, Joao Klauss, Talles Magno

5. The team must make the playoffs

Every winner has been on a playoff team except for one. Rossi in the 2020 COVID season. Yes, this is retrospective, but at least we want players on teams that are good. We need 20+ goals to win the Golden Boot, which is difficult if the team is outside the playoff line.

Sorry, Toronto and Charlotte, you’re outta here.

Players eliminated: Federico Bernardeschi, Enzo Copetti

6. No back-to-back winners

Sorry, Denis.

Player eliminated: Denis Bouanga

Players who passed the gauntlet:

With that, let’s take a look at the players remaining…

• Georgios Giakoumakis: If GG didn’t miss 7 games with injuries or Greek national team duty, I believe he would’ve won this last year. GG created 0.63xG/90 in 2023, the highest in the league. With the addition of Saba Lobzhanidze and Almada staying in Atlanta for now, he has two elite chance creators feeding him opportunities. Plus, after Almada does leave over the summer, GG will take over penalty kick duties. A very viable candidate in his 2nd year, but at 12-1 I’m going to pass.
• Cucho Hernandez: Zelarayan leaving arguably helps Cucho’s Golden Boot candidacy. Diego Rossi brings in the same playmaking abilities while letting Cucho take the penalties as well as some free kicks. Cucho ended the season with the most expected goals (20.2xG) while scoring 16, so there is room for improvement. The Crew will continue to play attacking style. However, as a team they scored 10 goals over expected. That is enough for me to pass.
• Aaron Boupendza: Boupendza doesn’t meet the minutes minimum to show on many of the standard charts, but he ended the year with 0.81xG/90. More than Cucho. With Vazquez off to Mexico, he can step into the primary #9 role in 2024. I worry about the impact Barreal leaving will have on the team’s creativity, but I think Boupendza can ultimately score at 0.8goals/game like he did previously in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Boupendza also took pk’s with his previous two clubs, so he is the likely backup to take them behind Acosta.
• Lucho Acosta: The current MVP was spectacular last season. However, he scored 17 goals off 13xG. Historically, Acosta is about a 0.3xG/90 player. (He was 0.44xG/90 in 2023). I find it difficult for Lucho to reach that same level of goalscoring again in 2024.
• Daniel Gazdag: The penalty kick king! In 3 years at Philadelphia, Gazdag is a perfect 19/19 from the spot! He is also very consistent in his xG/90 output – 0.45, 0.50. 0.45. While that is great, that isn’t going to lead Gazdag to win the Golden Boot.
• Cristian Arango: Chicho seems to be about a 0.65xG/90 player. With Diego Luna creating for him, that might tick up a notch. Luna is an excellent creator at just 20 years old. But are RSL going to score enough to have a 20+ goal scorer? They only created 43xG last year and I see them having a hard time to get to 55+ with Mastroeni in charge.
• Facundo Torres: With the changes to Orlando City’s #9, Facundo Torres seems to be the player most in line to score the goals. But will he stay for the full season? The 23-year-old Uruguayan will likely have some European suitors by the summer. Orlando has a history of selling at first offer (Dike, Mueller, even McGuire this winter even though it fell through).
• Ryan Gauld: A longshot who I believe has a chance. The ‘Caps will play attacking football and created 55xG last year. Last year, Gauld jumped to 0.48xG/90, the highest of his career. The upleveling of Andre Cubas and Petro Vite in Vancouver’s midfield allows for Gauld to be more of a goalscorer. He will also be on penalty kicks and set pieces.
• Petar Musa: Musa probably won’t take PKs initially. However, if Jesus Ferreira leaves in the summer, then I believe he will. The books will likely be slow to update the market and we can pounce on Musa if the transfer is confirmed by a reputable source. So, I will wait and see with Musa.

2024 Golden Boot Winner Selection

Ultimately, I think it comes down to GG, Cucho, or Boupendza from this list. With Boupendza being the longest on the odds board, I will take a chance with him to win the 2024 MLS Golden Boot at 20-1!

Western Conference preview up tomorrow. Week 1 preview will be up before Saturday’s games. LFG!