After taking an in-depth look at the Eastern Conference, now let’s analyze the Western Conference.

LAFC’s market value took a hit with the outgoing transfers over the offseason. I think there is value fading the team that is not all setup at the beginning of the season. Then, at the end of the market value graph, everyone from Minnesota to Sporting KC are just separated by €5M.

Austin FC

The 2023 Austin FC season was a win for the nerds! Their xG stats from 2022 showed they drastically overperformed. In 2023, they regressed to how the numbers represented The Verde and Black, finishing 12th and having the 2nd worst xGD in the West.

Druissi, Rigoni, and Zardes struggled to create consistent chances. Rigoni continues to look like a huge flop for a DP signing. And now, Austin is shifting him from the RW to False 9 position given their roster construction. That doesn’t give me any confidence that this team will turn things around soon.

Outside of adding winger Jadier Obrian from Texas rivals FC Dallas, Austin has not made any other real moves to improve the squad. They will start with 2 center backs that are 30+, Julio Cascante and Matt Hedges.

If one of them goes down, then Alexander Ring (31) will likely once again have to move back from his preferred CDM role to fill the gap. Ring is much better when he is deployed in a role where he can use his great passing ability to hit those key passes. (He played the CDM role when Austin went on its great run in 2022). When he is asked to be the last line of defense, it can lead to more chances for the opponents. Last year, with Ring on the field Austin FC was 0.37xG worse but in 2022, there was little effect with him on or off when he played primarily CDM.

Colorado Rapids

I imagine the talks in the locker room for this Rapids team is like the one kid in college who went on study abroad to Europe, but now he is back in America, and he has a story to say how much cooler everything was abroad.

Chris Armas was hired as the new manager for the Rapids, and he brings back Americans from their study abroad trips (Zack Steffen, Djordje Mihailovic, Sam Vines, and Cole Bassett). And with the outgoing of Jack Price, Diego Rubio, Danny Wilson, and William Yarbrough, it really is a new team in Commerce City. Which is probably good considering the Rapids were dead last in xGD in the West last year (-0.28xGD/90).

With Armas leading the team, it makes sense there would be more of a press, counterpress style to the Rapids. Armas comes from the Red Bull family and was an assistant at Manchester United for a bit. Which all makes sense considering the Rapids also signed Omir Fernandez from NYRB. So, there is depth in the midfield which is a first for the Rapids in a long time.

The most important signing, however, might end up being Zack Steffen. The American arrives on a free transfer from Manchester City despite the fact that the Rapids signed Marko Illic in 2023. Well, it turns out Illic was the worst GK in the league last year. Steffen was not great last year when he was on loan at Middlesbrough (career worst -3.1 PSxG+/-). But he did show promising signs at the Crew before going abroad. Upgrading GK is about the easiest and most predictable way a team can improve from one season to the next, and I expect the Rapids to do so in 2024.

FC Dallas

After posting a conference low 1.11xGF/90 and second-lowest 1.08xGA/90, FC Dallas were the lowest event team in 2023 (unders, unders, unders). But they took a step to increase their offensive production in the offseason by signing Petar Musa from Benfica. In limited minutes the past 2 years in Portugal, Musa averages 0.82xG/90 (WOW!). But the last time he played 1,000+ minutes (21/22 for Boavista, a worse team than Benfica), he had 0.35xG/90. So, it’s probably somewhere in the middle. Either way, on paper it seems like a great signing. Especially for a Dallas team that has not hit on an international DP since Carlos Grueo in 2016.

Jesus Ferreira seems to have European suitors, but Dallas (/MLS??) rejected a transfer to Russia over the winter. Ferreira is a prime candidate to leave over the summer, so the addition of Musa is even more important.

Manager Nico Estevez seems to have changed the team’s shape in 2024 as they are utilizing a 5-2-3 approach in their preseason matches. The success of this change will ultimately rely on 3 things: (1) the spacing of the attacking 3, (2) the wingbacks creating width in the attack, and (3) the 3 center backs and 2 center midfielders covering for the wingbacks. One will be a work in progress, but the addition of Musa gives me confidence the attack will improve.

The second part is a more difficult challenge as FCD have struggled to find a wingback since Ryan Hollingshead left for LAFC. However, they might have found something by converting former FCD Academy player, Dante Sealy, from a traditional winger to wingback. Sealy was an elite-level prospect, played great for North Texas, and got some first team minutes at 16 before going to play for Jong PSV. He arrived back in Frisco last year, and in just 285 minutes, he had 10 progressive carries (9/10 of those were into the final third). So, the wingback role might suit him well to move him farther away from the goal but using his dribbling prowess to progress the attack into the box.

The final issue seems to be solved through the play of Spaniard Asier Illarramendi. The Busquets of Sociedad was excellent at the CDM role. Partnering him with someone who can cover more space (Pomykal or Ntsabaleng), seems like a winning combination.

Houston Dynamo

The Dynamo were the 2nd most surprising team in 2023 behind St. Louis City SC. But they were more reliable in the cup competitions. The Orange and Black made it to the Leagues Cup and Western Conference semifinals in Ben Olsen’s first year.

Most of the success was thanks to Hector Herrera making the 2nd year jump and elevating his game to near MVP-level. But HH suffered an injury last month and will miss an undisclosed time to begin the season.

Outside of HH and his midfielder partners of Artur and Coco Carrasquilla, there really is not much else to this team. From ASA, the Houston strikers contributed -6.7 g+ above average striker. This ranked last in MLS.  That was with Corey Baird, who is now with FCC, so Houston will have to (somehow) rely on Sebastian Ferreira to score goals in 2024. The Peruvian went 24 appearances without scoring last year and was sent on loan halfway through the year to Vasco da Gama due to conflicts with the managerial staff.

*Annual reminder that Steve Clark cannot save a penalty kick* (83% success rate against him on 35 attempts) yet that didn’t stop the Dynamo from advancing in 2 pk shootouts last year (smh!)

LA Galaxy

It was a disappointing 2023 for the Galaxy. The fans demanded changes in the club’s front office, and they got it. Will Kuntz, formerly with crosstown rivals LAFC, is now the General Manager. Then there are changes on the player side, Chicharito departed for his hometown club, Chivas. Douglas Costa left for Brazil, and Raheem Edwards was traded to Montreal.

The Galaxy signed Brazilian winger Gabriel Pec, so Joveljic owns the #9 role. There are rumors that the Galaxy might use their 3rd DP slot on Joseph Paintsil, a Ghanaian international who currently plays with Genk. Turn up the All Out Attack sliders!!

The core to the LA Galaxy is their 3-man midfield. Gaston Brugman, Marky Delgado, and Ruiqi Puig will ensure the Galaxy create consistent, high-quality chances. Puig can be an MVP candidate if the Galaxy are at the top of the table.

The defense and goalkeeping were the primary issues in 2023. They allowed the most goals in the West (67) and highest xGA/90 (1.6). Jonathan Bond’s PSxG/90 has declined in each of his three years in Carson City. Last year, it came out to -0.18PSxG/90, 8th percentile amongst goalkeepers according to FBref. Oh, and backup Jonathan Klinsmann was 13th percentile. Kuntz addressed the GK issue by bringing John McCarthy with him across town.

Then, the defense relied on young kids and experienced veterans, which always an interesting combination. Jalen Neal and Julian Aude played well for being 19 years old, while Maya Yoshida, Chris Mavinga, Kelvin Leerdam, and Martin Caceres are all on the other side of 30. Leerdam is now replaced by Miki Yamane, a Japanese RB, who is at least consistent and has played 30+ 90s every year as a pro.

Will the defense improve? Likely (it has to, right?). Will it be excellent? Likely not. Another team with an obvious GK upgrade is a buy for me, but I don’t see a defense relying on 35-year-old Maya Yoshida contending for the top of the table.

LAFC

After winning MLS Cup in 2022 and going back to the Final in 2023, it must be more of the same for LAFC, right? Well maybe not…

They lost a lot of their production. It is still uncertain if Carlos Vela will return. Denis Bouanga reportedly entertained European suitors. Their top two GKs left, after signing Frenchman Hugo Lloris. Basically, half of their production is no longer in the squad.

Yet, LAFC still have arguably the best center back pairing in the league with Aaron Long and Jesus Murillo. Ryan Hollingshead provides effective attacking presence from the outside back role.

The midfield is not deep, for the first time in LAFC’s history. Along with Ilie, who is 31 now, and Malik Tillman, Eduard Atuesta returns after a couple of years in Brazil. Atuesta was excellent in their 2019 Western Conference title year, but only played 5 minutes in Brazil last year. Atuesta’s entire time at Palmeiras seems like a resounding disappointment. Mateusz Bogusz (22) and Erik Duenas (19) are currently the only other midfielders listed.

The wingers, Denis Bouanga and Edward Olivera, are also excellent. Bouanga comes off his Golden Boot campaign scoring 20 goals with 6 assists. Olivera came in midway through the season but certainly made an impact. Olivera seems to be ultra-dynamic on the ball and provide an additional goal threat opposite Bouanga.

The #9 is the real question with this team. Vela’s status is up in the air. With him, they are certain shield contenders. Without him, do they have enough goals in Bouanga and Olivera to sustain them? And will Bouanga stay through the summer transfer window?

With the thin midfield, there is a chance it could all go wrong for LAFC. They have the money and resources to pour on in the summer, if necessary. That creates a very high floor for this team. But I think there is another option to take the crown in the Western Conference.

Minnesota United

For the first time in club history, Minnesota United will a manager not named Adrian Heath. In addition, they hired a new Chief Soccer Officer, Khaled El-Ahmad, from Barnsley but he started just two months ago. Without time to complete a full coaching search, Cameron Knowles begins the season as the interim manager.

Despite missing the playoffs in 2023, the Loons finished 4th in the West based on xGD (+0.17). That was even after their best player, Emanuel Reynoso, skipped preseason and didn’t play his first game until June. Then, they brought in DP striker, Teemu Puuki, in July. All this to say, Minnesota was good last year even though the table may not suggest that.

Adding Swedish CB, Victor Eriksson, to the Twin Cities is an underrated offseason signing. The 23-year-old can limit supplement the minutes of 35-year-old Michael Boxall. While Boxall still produced 2.24 G+ in 2023, it is hard to think the New Zealander will repeat that performance again.

Yet, I think the ceiling of this Minnesota team is capped despite almost always having the best player on the field. For one, the coach is a huge uncertainty. Knowles was previously the manager for Timbers 2 and Minnesota United 2, where they did not qualify for the playoffs either of the past 2 years.

The other restriction is Wil Trapp at CDM. An MLS-lifer, Trapp is consistently average. For a team that really has all the other pieces needed to contend for MLS Cup, I always come back to the #6 role holding them back from greatness.

Portland Timbers

The Timbers are another team with a managerial change. They left longtime manager Gio Savarese go and replaced him with Phil Neville.

I am not a fan of Neville, but he plus their offseason roster changes should improve the defense. The Timbers allowed 58 goals on 44.1xGA. They signed GK Maxime Crepeau from LAFC after Aljaz Ivacic and David Bingham added a combined -0.39 goals from shotstopping per 96 compared to the average GK. (Crepeau was neutral in the same metric in 2022. He just played 7 games last year due to injury).

With just one DP currently on the roster, the upside of this Portland team is limited. Evander, the sole DP, enters his second year in the Rose City. The Brazilian was a highly touted signing, and he needs to make the jump in order to live up to expectations.

The Timbers have been hampered by the injury bug the last few years. Eryk Williamson, Marvin Loria, Dairon Asprilla, Claudio Bravo, and Felipe Mora all suffered long term injuries. Can Neville reverse the injury luck?

Real Salt Lake

Salt Lake finished 5th in the West despite having a -0.16xGD (10th in the conference). They lost key attackers Jefferson Savarino and Damir Kreilach in the offseason.

Fortunately, Pablo Ruiz returns after a season-ending injury in 2023. Ruiz was excellent to begin the year but didn’t play after July. He even scored a golazo from his own half. RSL was +0.80xG with Ruiz on the field compared to off.

The back 4 in Salt Lake was consistent. 3 of the 4 played the most minutes for RSL (Glad, Brody, and Vera). They led the team in G+ (1.48, 1.62, and 1.35, respectively). And they all move into their prime ages in 2024 (26, 27, and 25, respectively). Glad and Vera are an underrated CB pairing in the league. As long as they can all stay healthy, the floor is high for the Boys from Sandy.

The underlying question for RSL in 2024 is do they have enough quality in the attack to consistently score and create high-quality chances? Ruiz is a big addition back to the squad. Diego Luna is just 20 years old with 1,500 MLS minutes to his name. Can he step up to help Chicho Arango?

San Jose Earthquakes

The Quakes barely limped into the playoffs in 2023. But they made it despite only winning 2 of the 11 games after Leagues Cup. Thanks to an improved defensive rigidity which saw them only concede 43 goals, just like I predicted last preseason. Yet, they allowed 51.4xGA, 2nd worst in the West. They do have some gaps to fill as Cade Cowell, Jamiro Monteiro, and Jonathan Mensah all departed San Jose in the offseason.

With Monteiro out the door, who will play the #10 role? That is an obvious flaw in this roster right now. But they did sign a DP left winger in hopes of balancing out the attack. Last year, San Jose had 42% of their attacks come from the right side (2nd most in MLS, according to WhoScored). They relied on Cristian Espinoza to create A LOT. And he did. Now, Amahl Pellegrino arrived from Bodo/Glimt as a goal scoring winger. Pellegrino is a back-to-back Golden Boot winner in the Norwegian league scoring 49 combined goals. How will the 33-year-old make the transition to MLS remains to be see? He spent one year of his career outside of Norway and saw his goal contributes cut in half. (0.7G/90 in Norway and 0.32G/90 in Saudi Arabia)

But the Quakes arguably have the best GK in the league with Daniel. The Brazilian led the league with 0.26 goals added per 96 minutes according to ASA. If the Quakes can have a full season with Daniel between the sticks, then the defense could once again improve year-over-year.

Without a DP #10, it is difficult to see this team doing anything more than challenging for a playoffs spot.

Seattle Sounders

The Sounders returned to the playoffs in 2023 after missing it in 2022. They also made a high-profile signing in the offseason with Pedro de la Vega arriving from Lanus. For a lot of money ($7.5M), de la Vega contributed very little to Lanus, but he loves to dribble. And maybe fitting that profile is more important for manager Brian Schmetzer. I think they hoped Leo Chu would transfer into a super-dribbler down the LW, but really has not panned out. So, de la Vega is now the new kid on the block.

This allows Jordan Morris to play the #9 role. Morris succeeded in this spot last year when he was forced to play due to injuries from Raul Ruidiaz. And Morris put up his best xG/90 numbers in his 7 seasons with Seattle last year. Ruidiaz remains in the Emerald City although it will be a super sub role. Then, Seattle also signed Danny Musovski who has put up 0.50xG+xA/90 in his 3,000 MLS at RSL and LAFC. Those three create the deepest #9 pool in the league.

Club legend Nico Lodeiro left for Orlando City, besides the Argentine everyone else returns for Seattle in 2024. But that will not really affect Seattle. With their transfer activity in 2023 and homegrowns maturing, they have 4-5 midfielder who would start for any other MLS team. One of them is 18-year-old Obed Vargas who already has over 2,200 first team minutes – very promising.

They even added depth to the center back position by signing Nathan from San Jose and Jon Bell from St. Louis City. Basically, the Sounders have the deepest roster in the West (and maybe the league) with exceptional quality. Joao Paulo, Jackson Ragen, Yeimar, the Roldan Bros., Rusnak…….

I believe there is value on Seattle to win the West and lift MLS Cup.

Sporting KC

Two club legends, Graham Zusi and Roger Espinoza, walked out the door at the end of last year. They were pretty bang average last year. But that might be a good thing considering Peter Vermes’s side didn’t win their first game until May. (0W-3D-7L)

After being injured all 2023, Alan Pulido returned to KC and scored 14 goals. SKC were 0.21xG/90 better with Pulido on the field. But now Pulido will turn 33 this year. And his forward partner, Johnny Russell, will turn 34. Besides Russell and Pulido, SKC will have to rely on a few more players 29+ – Radoja, Rosero, and Thommy.

SKC are trying to run it back with the same team as last year. And that team didn’t do great. In fact, they have not had a positive xGD since 2021. I find it hard for SKC to do that in 2024. Plus, another injury to Pulido or Russell (both injury prone) and there is a massive setback to the team’s attacking output. This may be the last year of Vermes in KC.

St. Louis City SC

St. Louis City went on an historic run in 2023. They became the first expansion side to ever win their conference in their inaugural year. But (and a big but here), the numbers have fraud written all over them. They finished the year with a -0.22xGD/90, 2nd worst in the West. A majority of the difference came from scoring 62 goals off just 42.6xG.

The surprise of the season was forward Sam Adeniran being recalled from his loan to USL Championship side San Antonio due to injury to DP striker Klauss. Adeniran went on to score 8 goals and keep the team’s momentum going. However, those 8 goals were off a combined 3.9xG. That doesn’t sound sustainable.

Romain Burki was excellent and won GK of the year. Typically, I am not a fan of a club using an international roster spot on a GK as there are so many decent level domestic players. But Burki’s stop stopping and distribution helped St Louis to the first-place finish. So, it is hard to argue with the signing.

Manager Bradley Carnell brought the Red Bulls methodology of soccer – pressing and direct – to the Midwest with great success. But now opponents have a full year of tape to analyze their style, will it have the same success in 2024? There are too many similarities between 2023 St. Louis City and 2022 Austin FC. Both dramatically overperformed in xGF. Both were bounced earlier from the playoffs. Austin FC fell off a cliff the next season. I think you sense where I am going with this.

Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver had an excellent 2023 campaign despite flaming out at the hands of LAFC at home in the playoffs. The ‘Caps were 3rd in the West in xGD/90 (+0.34), and actually underperformed a bit by only having a goal difference of +0.21/90.

The key to another successful campaign for Vanni Sartini will be ironing out the defensive issues. Vanni ended the season playing a back 3 of Blackmon, Laborda, and Veselinovic. All are pretty average. ASA has Blackmon with the best G+/96 last year at +0.06. Vancouver have not made any offseason additions, so the same 3 expected to play this year. If anything, their defense will feel the impact of losing Richie Laryea. But the 3 are all fairly young, so maybe some development can happen in 2024.

The attack is built around DP #10/SS Ryan Gauld (28) who scored 11 goals and assisted 12 in 2023. Gauld loves to find the half spaces between the opposing midfield and defense, receive the ball, and turn to attack the defense before scoring or finding the killer pass. He is really one of my favorite players to watch and makes this ‘Caps team so exciting.

Vancouver will rotate 4 centermids all between the ages of 21 to 29. From youngest to oldest, Pedro Vite, Sebastian Berhalter, Andres Cubas, and Alessandro Schopf all played significant minutes in 2023. Schopf is the most interesting, however. The Austrian arrived from the Bundesliga in 2022 but had a -0.65 G+ according to ASA. Vite and Cubas were both positive, and Berhalter was slightly negative. Schopf will enter his 3rd year in the league, so to see him step up in 2024 would be a surprise.

Ultimately, the roster construction screams that this is “THE” year for the Caps to take advantage of everyone reaching typical peak ages. Despite losing in the first round of the CONCACAF Champions Cup to Tigres on 4-1 aggregate, I think there are good things ahead for this Whitecaps team in 2024.

Predictions

1. Seattle Sounders
2. LAFC
3. Vancouver Whitecaps
4. Minnesota United
5. FC Dallas
6. RSL
7. Houston Dynamo
8. LA Galaxy
9. Portland Timbers
10. San Jose
11. Sporting KC
12. St. Louis City
13. Colorado Rapids
14. Austin