We’re on the board! 2-2 last week, 2-4 for the year. Let’s get into the green after MD3!

NYCFC v Portland

We start off MD3 in the Bronx where NYCFC has not scored in 2024. The Pigeons have only created 0.5xG per game but both contests were on the road. However, I believe my preview sussed out this team correctly. They have a solid defense and midfield (however, James Sands will miss this match due to a red card suspension) but rely on too many young or MLS rookies to consistently score goals. Their 16.5 shot-creating actions (SCA) per 90 is in the bottom third of the league, too. Playing their home opener on the small field at Yankee Stadium should bring some life back to the NYCFC attack. But the vibes are bad. And Santi Rodriguez did not appreciate being subbed off early last week.

Despite what the score lines suggest, Portland has also struggled to create. The Timbers’s SCA per 90 are just above NYCFC (17.0/90). With two home games, the Timbers scored four times off 0.5 xG against the lowly Rapids and then twice off 0.8xG against DC United. While there are rumors of DP #9 Berterame arriving from Monterrey, they are left with Dairon Asprilla playing the False 9 role. I much prefer him on the wing with a true #9. Further, the Timbers have a cross-country trip with a 10AM PT kickoff. Will they be ready from the jump??

BREAKING: Portland Timbers in advanced talks to sign sign forward Germán Berterame from CF Monterrey with a bid around $15m, per sources. @CLMerlo 1st.

Nothing agreed yet but Portland working on it. Monterrey could still keep him. TBD ⏳https://t.co/thqSGBSnp7

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) March 2, 2024

• NYCFC u2.5 -110

Other Games

• Toronto u2.75 -120: similar situation to the NYCFC-Portland match. Both improved attacks under their new managers but have struggled to create high-quality chances in 2024.
• Seattle +0.25 -105: Philly are off a tough midweek CCC match against Pachuca. I like Seattle to get a point here and should have some starters back from injury.
• LAG +0.25 -105 and TT o1.5 +152: the Galaxy attack is LETHAL!!! Painstil looks excellent early – quick, direct, and a good finish last week against SJ. Nashville played Thursday night against Inter Miami, a grueling match. I would expect some rotation and likely no Hany given the quick turnaround after his return from injury.