We interrupt the MLS content for a look at the European Championships! I’ll run through my process and preview each group with some futures bets. Auf geht’s!

To come up with my numbers, I weighted each nation’s xGF and xGA in a few different competitions over the past few years:

• Friendlies (2023-2024)
• Nations League (2022-2023)
• EURO 2024 Qualifying (2023-2024)

Note: all xG data provided by FootyStats.

Then, I adjusted each nation’s xG by their squad value (courtesy of Transfermarkt). This helps ensure the good teams are rated above the weaker teams. Put all that together and voila we have a set of power rankings!

Group A

Surprisingly, the host nation is not my top-rated team in Group A. Historically, the Germans have made it to the semifinal stage of every major international competition on home soil. Yet, there are some concerns with this squad. The Germans are conceding 2.0+xGA in their 2024 Friendly matches. Their midfield, relying on older/slower guys is a concern, and I think that limits their ability to lift the trophy on home soil.

Group B

Group B has 3 teams with great international tournament success over the last decade or so. But of the three powerhouses (apologies to the whipping boys of Albania), I like Spain the most. The Spanish are bringing in a crop of young starts – Pedri, Yamal, Nico Williams – to Germany. Partnering them with the peak-aged players like Rodri, Laporte, Simon, and Dani Olmo, it makes sense why they have only lost once in the last 18 months. I like Spain’s upside to compete with the other favorites in a knockout tournament and win the EUROs.

Bets: Spain to Win +800; Rodri POT +2500; Asllani Top Albania Goalscorer +1600

Group C

Group C has 3 very solid defensive teams in England, Denmark, and Serbia. Then, Slovenia’s attack ranks 20th in the competition. I expect these matches to all be slow, grinders. Under Southgate in tournaments, England are comfortable winning 1-0 and moving on. Even though this team’s attack is the best Southgate has had, I expect more of the same from the Three Lions.

Bets: Slovenia Lowest Scoring Team +900; Group C Lowest Scoring +400

Group D

For me, Group D and Group F are the two most interesting from a betting perspective. Ronald Koeman has had success with the Dutch squad. He lead the Oranje to a Nations League Final before he left for Barcelona, and now he is back in charge. Their defensive 4 of VVD, Ake, De Vrij, and Dumfries are arguably the best in this tournament, and they have the midfield stability that is required to make a deep tournament run.

Austria are playing well under Ralf Rangnick and will utilize the Red Bull pressing style to their advantage. The pressing strategy is uncommon for international teams and I think Austria can punch above their weight in Germany.

Bets: Netherlands +1800; Dumfries Most Assist +4000; Austria to Advance -135; Griezmann Most Assists +1800; Poland Lowest Scoring Team +900

Group E

Belgium has the easiest draw. Now that Tedesco is in charge and Lukaku is in fine form, I would not be surprised if they made it the final.

Bet: Hancko Top Slovakia Goalscorer +1600

Group F

Group F is another interesting one. Portugal on paper are the most talented team in the tournament, but can Roberto Martinez lead them to glory? I would argue no..

Czech and Turkey are both mid-pack teams with Big 5 European talent. The Czechs did a lot of their qualifying without Euro 2020 top goalscorer Patrick Schick, but now he is healthy. Turkey will look to avenge their disappointment in Qatar 2022 and have added talented youngster Arda Guler into their 11.

Bets: Group F Highest Scoring +400; Czech to Advance -175;

Round 1 Bets

• Scotland +1.5 +105
• Spain TT o1.5 +110
• Italy u2.5 -125
• Poland TT u0.5 +102
• Serbia u2.5 -105 / sprinkle draw
• Turkey o2.25 -108
• Czech +1 -100