The #SummerofSoccer continues as the best teams in the Americas set to face off in the USA. Using a methodology similar to my EURO preview, let’s take a look at the Copa America.

I used three factors to aggregate an xG rating for each team:

• Market Value (from transfermarkt.com)
• League Factor (bumped up the CONMEBOL teams and lowered the CONCACAF teams to account for the difference in competition)
• xG from recent matches played (from FootyStats.org)

Given these teams come from two confederations, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL, I used slightly different inputs to create a team projection.

CONCACAF	CONMEBOL
Gold Cup	World Cup Qualifying
Nations League	Friendlies 2024
Friendlies 2024	Friendlies 2023
Friendlies 2023

Group A

The defending World Cup Champions (& the GOAT) lead Group A. But it’s Argentina’s defense that stands out above the rest. Their 0.62xGA is the lowest in the tournament by more than a quarter of a goal. Canada look to right the ship with American Jesse Marsch managing now. They have talent, will it come together on the field?

Peru have the lowest xGF rating in the tournament and have struggled in World Cup Qualification, only scoring once in six matches. The other three teams in Group A have above average defenses, so I like Peru to be the lowest scoring team of the tournament.

Bets: Peru Lowest Scoring Team +900; Canada to Advance +220

Group B

Mexico and Ecuador should easily advance from Group B. Mexico turned things around from the Gold Cup and played better in the Nations League (despite still losing to the good ole’ US of A!).

Ecuador have questions at striker. Will Enner Valencia be fit enough to perform? But the rest of the squad is very talented and has a European-flair.

Venezuela will rely on Solomon Rondon who led Pachuca to a CONCACAF Champions Cup. Venezuela have only lost 3 times since June 2022 (18 matches), will they play spoiler in the Copa?

Bets: Mexico to Win Group B +155

Group C

Once again, USA and Uruguay stand out above the rest. It is really difficult for me to see Panama or Bolivia (especially Bolivia) get a point off the top dogs. Bolivia are the worst team in the tournament.

Bets: Bolivia to Finish Bottom of Group C -120

Group D

This should be a fun group with goals. Brazil have some internal motivations after the legendary Ronaldinho said that the game is gone and Brazil are not playing Brazil futbol.

Bets: none for now

Matchday 1 (4-1-1)

• Argentina u2.5 +115
• Peru BTTS-NO -140
• Mexico -1 +107
• Colombia o2.5 +130 / BTTS-Yes +120
• Brazil o3 -130

Matchday 2 (4-5)

• Canada +120 / Canada Shutout W +225
• Argentina TT o1.5 -125 / TT o2.5 +260
• Ecuador u2.5 -135
• Mexico +115
• Uruguay TT o2.5 -122
• Colombia o2.5 -105
• Paraguay +1.5 -118

Matchday 3 (1-5-1)

• Argentina ML + BTTS-NO +120
• Canada pk
• Jamaica +0.5
• Mexico +170
• Bolivia +1
• Brazil o2.25
• Paraguay +105

Quarterfinals

• Argentina to Win to Nil
• Canada To Advance
• Colombia o2.5
• Colombia To Win Copa +650 (FD) – they were the better team against Brazil in the last group stage game. I like them in a rematch or even against Uruguay and then you have a hedge opportunity in the Final.