The 4th edition of the Leagues Cup Tournament begins Saturday, July 26. The tournament includes all teams from MLS and Liga MX. The 47 teams were drawn into 15 groups of 3, with the two domestic champions – Club America and Columbus Crew – receiving a bye to the Round of 32. Two of the three clubs from each group will advance, along with Club America and the Crew, to the Round of 32.

As with every tournament, the first step is to understand the rules. The key change from last year’s edition is the addition of ‘Hub Cities’ for Liga MX teams. Instead of playing every game away, four Liga MX clubs were granted the ability to play in predetermined locations. The four clubs were selected based on their performance in the Apertura. The clubs awarded a ‘Hub City’ are:

• Club America (San Diego)
• CF Monterrey (Austin)
• CD Guadalajara (Santa Clara and Los Angeles)
• Tigres UANL (Houston)

These teams have an advantage due to limited travel and playing their games closer to the US-Mexico border, which can draw in more of their fanbase.

Methodology

Now, let’s dive into the stats. Since these teams come from different leagues and do not play many crossover matches outside of the Leagues Cup, I took a few steps to power rank them.

1. xG in Domestic Competitions
2. Squad Market Value Adjustment
3. League Factor

For xG, I used FBRef to get the data from the current MLS season, the Liga MX Apertura (through 4 matches), and Liga MX Clausura. I weighted the Apertura data more despite the lower sample size. Including the Clausura numbers helps establish a baseline for each club and avoids potential small-sample outliers.

Using Transfermarkt.com, I found the Market Value for each club and adjusted based on how much more (or less) the value is compared to the average team. As you can see below, the Market Value for Club America is greater than that of Queretaro FC, so they should be rewarded for that value as I convert it to xG.

Specifically, it came out to Club America being 0.41 xG better than Queretaro FC based on Market Value only.

Lastly, a league factor helps alleviate the differences between the two competitions. Using Opta’s squad rankings, the Liga MX averaged a 77 while MLS teams averaged a 66.

Therefore, I rewarded the Mexican teams by 9.5% for playing tougher competition and punished the American/Canadian squads 5.9% for their “cupcake” schedule.

Results

Putting those three steps together, and voila!

Market Check

Ok, let’s take a look at the oddsboard and compare:

Cruz Azul: #1 in my rankings and 5th on the odds board … interesting

Pumas: 29-1 and 4th in my rankings?!!

Group Analysis

Let’s go group by group and see where the value lies.

RIP Austin. A tough group for the verde and black. To me, Monterrey and Pumas are the clear two teams to advance.

Chivas have played well to begin the Clausura and the Galaxy’s xG numbers forewarn of some defensive challenges.

Yuck! 🤮 Skip!

Toluca! I took them to win their group last year (cashed that ticket!), and I will again this year.

Leon are typically a powerhouse, but have struggled to being the Clausura. Will that translate into Leagues Cup? Pass for me.

Sounders are favorites and the betting market agrees.

A strong group. Tijuana have looked good in their 4 Clausura matches. The addition of former Minnesota United player, Emanuel Reynoso, is part of that. Histically, Vancouver have struggled when they take a step up in competition. Will that happen again?

Can the RSL magic season continue?

NYCFC have sneaky been very solid this MLS campaign.

Another stinky group! 🤮

Ooof! A tough group. Likely Messi taking the field for the group stage, I like Tigres to win this group. Plus, they are a ‘Hub City’ team. So, they will play Miami in Houston, big advantage!

An interesting group.. Philly have their key players back from international duty. Charlotte have been the darlings of the Eastern Conference. Azul might be a wagon??! +1.31xG/90 so far in the Clausura. 🔵🔵🔵🔵

Mazatlan were the surprise group winners last year. Can they make a consecutive appearance into the Round of 32?

I was surprised to see Pachuca so low. It looks to be NYRB’s group to lose, but we all know what will happen now.

Santos have been poor and then Atlanta sold all their good players. Can DC take advantage of the draw?

Future Picks

To Win Leagues Cup 2024:

• Cruz Azul +1300 🔵🔵🔵🔵
• UNAM Pumas +2900 🐆
• Tigres UANL +2300 🐅

To Win their Group:

• CD Guadalajara +230
• Toluca -110
• Seattle Sounders +100
• Tigres +145
• Mazatlan +500

Come back later in the week for my picks for Matchweek 1 of Leagues Cup 2024. Best of luck! Let’s cash some tickets! 💰💰