With the MLS offseason in full swing, it’s time to dive into other sports. Today, I’m taking a closer look at the NBA.
Back in the COVID days, I was a devoted listener of You Better You Bet. Hosts Locky Lockerson and Nick Kostos scoured the betting world—from the NFL and NBA to college sports and beyond—in search of winners. One hypothesis they floated stuck with me: could you group NBA teams into tiers based on their records and find patterns in their spread performance?
Fast forward 4+ years, and I’m putting that theory to the test.
Note: Data includes games played through January 25, 2025.
Building the Tiers
To start, I divided the 30 NBA teams into five tiers based on win-loss records:
- Elite Tier
- The Tier of Very Good
- A Whole Bunch of Mediocrity
- Bad Basketball Teams
- Waiving the White Flag
Now let’s dig into how these teams have performed against the spread (ATS) across the tiers.
Example: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers, tied for the best record in the league at 36-9, are 29-16 ATS this season. But how do they fare against teams in different tiers?
- Tier 1: 1-1
- Tier 2: 5-2
- Tier 3: 12-5
- Tier 4: 3-4
- Tier 5: 8-4
Pretty intuitive—great teams tend to cover more often against weaker competition. But what about the rest of the league?
Top 5 ATS Records Across Tiers
Here are the top-performing teams ATS within each tier:
| Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3 | Tier 4 | Tier 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs (2-0) | Thunder (7-2) | Clippers (15-4) | 76ers (5-0) | Raptors (2-0) |
| Jazz (2-1) | Celtics (3-1) | Hornets (12-4) | Jazz (5-1) | Grizzlies (7-1) |
| 76ers (2-1) | Cavaliers (5-2) | Cavaliers (12-5) | Rockets (4-1) | Thunder (6-2) |
| Hawks (2-1) | Warriors (6-3) | Grizzlies (15-6) | Grizzlies (4-1) | Rockets (5-2) |
| Mavericks (3-2) | Nets (6-3) | Nuggets (16-7) | Thunder (3-1) | Magic (5-2) |
Initial Key Takeaways
- Memphis dominates the bottom feeders. The Grizzlies thrive against lower-tier teams, going 15-6 (Tier 3), 6-3 (Tier 4), and 7-1 (Tier 5)—a combined 28-10 ATS (74%).
- Very conveniently, the Grizzles won and covered the past two days against two Tier 5 teams – Pelicans on 1/24 and Jazz on 1/25.
- Utah excels against level competition. The Jazz are 7-2 (78%) ATS versus Tiers 4 and 5.
- Orlando struggles against quality teams. The Magic are 51% ATS overall but just 3-8 (27%) against Tiers 1 and 2.
Limitations
While this exercise is informative, it isn’t flawless:
- Context matters. Factors like travel, back-to-back games, and injuries can influence ATS results. However, using closing lines helps mitigate this, as the market prices these factors in.
- Timing issues. Tier classifications can’t be perfectly recreated at the season’s start since they depend on current records.
- Small sample sizes. A few games can significantly skew results, especially for individual tiers.
Final Thoughts
While not a definitive betting strategy, analyzing ATS performance by tiers provides valuable context for wagering. It highlights how team performance against the spread can shift depending on the quality of the opponent.
This methodology could also have broader applications. For instance:
- Totals Market: How do teams perform against the over/under in each tier?
- Other Sports:
- NFL: Likely not very useful due to the fewer number of games in a season.
- MLB: Sample size isn’t an issue, but day-to-day lineup changes could diminish value.
- NHL: Similar structure to the NBA makes this promising, though lack of a true ATS market means moneyline analysis would need to account for vig.
In short, tier-based analysis is a fun and potentially insightful tool for betting—just don’t bet the house on it!
The4thDP 
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