Unfortunately, the pressure was too big, and we could not hit four straight Golden Boot winners.

I am going for FOUR straight Golden Boot winners. Last year, I wrote why Denis Bouanga will win the Golden Boot. The year before, I hit Hany Mukhtar. The year before, I hit Taty Castellanos. The pressure is on.¹

Even worse, Christian Benteke broke 2 of my Golden Boot rules by being 33 years-old and DC United failing to make the playoffs. Benteke is now the oldest Golden Boot winner in MLS history. The Belgian scored 23 goals (on 18 xG) in 2024.

1. Have Designated Player status and be an international player

Each of the last 11 Golden Boot winners was a Designated Player (DP) for their club. So, we are looking for an elite player. Further, no American has won the Golden Boot since Wondo in 2012. DeRosario was the lone Canadian to ever win it in 2011. Basically, since the league began signing elite, level DPs those are they players who win this award. So, we’re looking for an elite, international player.

Bye bye, Suarez!

Players eliminated: Luis Suarez, Rafa Navarro, Jonathan Rodriguez, Alonso Martinez, Dejan Joveljic, Christian Ramirez, Brian White, Leo Campana, Josef Martinez, Jordan Morris, Djordje Mihailovic, Patrick Agyemang

2. Be between 22 and 30 years old

The youngest Golden Boot winner was Rossi at 22 in 2020. The oldest Golden Boot winner is now Benteke at 32. However, I think that is an outlier and will keep my 30 year-old upper limit. BWP was 30 years old the second time he won the Golden Boot in 2016.

Adios, Messi! The Inter Miami talisman is both quickly eliminated along with last year’s winner Christian Benteke and newcome, and Benteke’s former teammate, Wilfried Zaha.

Players eliminated: Leo Messi, Luis Muriel, Wilfried Zaha, Olivier Giroud, Emil Forsberg, Christian Benteke, Olivier Giroud, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

3. Have no more than 3 full years of MLS experience

Interestingly, every Golden Boot winner accomplished the feat in their first, second, or third full year in the league. Technically, Taty Castellanos won it in his fourth year, but he arrived in NYC in the summer of 2018, so full years of time only.

Player eliminated: Denis Bouanga, Lucho Acosta, Hany Mukhtar, Daniel Gazdag, Ryan Gauld, Giacomo Vironi, Mikael Uhre, Federico Bernardeschi

4. Be a designated penalty kick taker on their team

Penalties are “easy” chances to add to the goal tally. Penalty kicks are successfully scored 76% of the time. Since 2012, about 1 of every 5 goals scored by the eventual Golden Boot winner have been penalties.

Benteke scored 3 goals from the spot last year which brought him to first place.

Players eliminated: Petar Musa, Sam Surridge, Liel Abada

5. The team must make the playoffs

Every winner has been on a playoff team except for one. Rossi in the 2020 COVID season. Yes, this is retrospective, but at least we want players on teams that are good. We need 20+ goals to win the Golden Boot, which is difficult if the team is outside the playoff line.

Sorry, Toronto, Houston, San Jose, and newcomers San Diego, you’re outta here.

Players eliminated: Cristian Arango, Myto Uzuni, Ezequiel Ponce, Hirving Lozano, Anders Dreyer, Joao Klauss

6. No back-to-back winners

Sorry, Christian.

Player eliminated: Christian Benteke (again!)

Players who passed the gauntlet:

With that, let’s take a look at the nine players remaining…

• Emmanuel Latte Lath (+1600): The Ivorian joins Atlanta United for league record transfer fee of $22M this winter. Coming from Middlesbrough, Latte Lath is in peak fitness now. During his time in the English Championship, Latte Lath had 0.52xG/90. Moving to the MLS and Atlanta United’s high-flying attack, the xG/90 should increase to about the 0.60xG/90 required to win Golden Boot.
• Gabriel Pec (+2000): Moving from Brazil to LAG, Pec thrived on the wing and scored 16 goals on 14.4xG in 2024. However, main creator, Riqui Puig, tore his ACL in the Conference Finals and will miss a vast majority, if not the entire 2025 season. That is enough for me to eliminate Pec from contention.
• Keven Denkey (+2500): Denkey is supremely talented. During his 5 years at Cercle Brugge, Denkey scored 49 goals (0.58 goals per 90). However, transfers from the Belgian league have not always translated to MLS. Dante Vanzeir had about the same conversion rate in Belgium yet only scored 6 goals in 2 years (2,800 minutes) for NYRB. I want to wait and see it from Denkey (who scored in his first CCC game Wednesday night).
• Kelvin Yeboah (+5000): After joining Minnesota United midseason, Yeboah scored 7 goals in 9 matches. His 0.63 xG per 90 are well in line for a Golden Boot winner. However, 3 of his 7 goals came from the penalty spot and his 0.33 nPxG per 90 is much less inspiring. I do think Yeboah is very talented and can score 12+ goals in 2025, but doubt can he reach 20+.
• Evander (+6600): Evander, like Denkey, joined FCC this offseason. Evander was extremely productive with Portland last year scoring 15 goals and adding 15 assists. Both outcomes were well over the calculated expectations of 9.9xG and 11.3xAG. I do think it is more likely that Evander takes the penalty kicks for FCC than Denkey, but the competition between the two likely eliminates both from winning the Golden Boot.
• Joseph Paintsil (+6600): the Ghanian immediately produced in his first year in MLS. Now, Paintsil is hurt and out for the first 1.5-2 months of the season. Easy to eliminate him from contention due to his quad injury.
• Hugo Cuypers (+9500): Cuypers had a quiet season last year producing 10 goals from 10.9xG (without any PKs). Signing Jonathan Bamba and Philip Zinckernagel should add firepower to the Windy City’s attack. Additionally, Gregg Berhalter has sneakily elevated striker’s production. Berhalther’s 2013 to 2018 Columbus Crew teams saw 15+ goalscorers in Kei Kamara, Ola Kamara, and Gyasi Zardes. Further, Kei Kamara and Zardes scored their most goals in a season under GGG. I would not be surprised if Cuypers elevates to 15+ goals in 2025.
• Miguel Almiron (+10000): It will be exciting to see Almiron return to Atlanta and ‘The Benz.’ Almiron might even take some PKs away from Latte Lath. However, I see Almiron’s role in Atlanta attack as a creator and progressor, not someone on the end of service. In his two previous years at Atlanta, Miggy scored 9 and 12 goals. He will need to be on the right side of finishing luck to reach 20+ in 2025.
• Diego Rossi (+10000): Rossi should benefit in the goals market from Cucho leaving in the offseason. Rossi will be the PK taker and FK taker going forward. However, I fully expect the Crew to sign a #9 DP in the summer window and that limits Rossi’s upside.

2025 Golden Boot Winner Selection

Emmanuel Latte Lath: +1600 at Fanduel or BetMGM. GL!

I also like Yeboah, Evander, and Cuypers as long shots.

Western Conference preview up tomorrow. Week 1 preview will be up before Saturday’s games. LFG!

1. From my 2024 Golden Boot Preview ↩︎