It’s February and that means preview time! Matchday 1 is just a few weeks away.

I’ll go through every Western Conference team first. With every team, I included consensus odds To Lift MLS Cup, their DPs under contract, plus my thoughts on players incoming, tactics, coaches, and whatever else came to mind. As always, things can change but this is how I see it as of now. If you’re here for the TLDR, projected standings and wagers are at the end. VAMOS!

Austin FC (10-1)

Colorado Rapids (60-1)

• Andreas Maxso (Year 1)
• OPEN
• OPEN

2 open DP spots and the one DP on the roster was just signed Jan 27th is the story in Commerce City.

Although, you could argue adding Kevin Cabral from LAG is worth a half DP (by name, not from his performances to date). The criticism of Cabral was his unwillingness to put the ball in the net with just 6 goals scored from 13.4xG in his two years in LA. But take that away (and the DP tag), and you have a very good two-way winger who is going to put himself in places to be dangerous. Maybe the positive regression will come at once?

So, who can put the ball in the net? Zardes left for Austin, so that leaves Diego Rubio who scored career high 16 goals last year. I’m not fully convinced he can do it again. The Rapids have two teenaged homegrown forwards, Darren Yapi and Dantouma Toure, that can grow into goal scorers but are years away from being consistent first teamers.

The midfield gets a big boost with Cole Bassett returning from the Eredivisie. 20-year-old Brazilian Max enters his second year with the team and is a breakout candidate if he can beat out Basset or Ralph Priso for minutes.

The defense remains mostly intact from their Western Conference winning team in 2021. The Rapids will always be dangerous on set pieces Jack Price, who was injured for half of last year, whipping in the balls and their CBs getting on the end of them.

I guess I’ve talked myself into being optimistic about the ‘Pids this year. The addition of Cabral, the return of Bassett, and underperforming their xG by 10 goals last year are all positive. Can they lift the cup? No, but if everything goes right, I think a top 4 seed in the playoffs can happen.

FC Dallas (20-1)

• Jesus Ferreira
• Paul Arriola
• OPEN

Unlike most of these writeups, I’ll start from the back with FCD. Letting club legend Matt Hedges walk in the offseason was certainly a choice. Although he’s on the wrong side of 30, Hedges was definitely their most important defender. He improved the team by 0.35xG/90 while on the pitch last year. Seb Ibeagha comes in as his replacement. Between him and Jose Martinez at CB, I have little faith in that duo having success.

That’s not the only problem in Frisco. FCD’s RB has been a black hole since Reggie Cannon left for Portugal. Nanu was a one-and-done, Ema Twumasi is a converted winger, and the experimental back 3 was so-so. Nico Esteves brings in Geovane, a young Brazilian to hopefully resolve the RB problem.

In the front 6, Franco Jara never lived up to his hype and his departure opens a DP slot. It’s not really the M.O. of this FCD front office to use it on a big name, so I don’t know what to expect from that this year. Otherwise, the attack has quality and depth. Young DP, Alan Velasco, Arriola, and Lletget all go into year two with the team. Pomykal is healthy (for now) and Superdraft pick Tsiki Ntsabeleng showed promise in his first year.

The last thing on FCD is Servania might be the most underrated player in the league. He can’t lock down consistent minutes under Esteves, but he puts up solid numbers in the time he does see.

Overall, I have little faith in the current defense to make FCD a title contender. Plus, the xG regression gods are after them after overperfoming last year by 12 goals.

Houston Dynamo (66-1)

• Sebastian Ferreira (Year 2)
• Hector Herrera (Year 2)
• Teenage Hadebe

A very interesting decision to bring Ben Olsen in as the gaffa. In his 11+ years at the helm of DC United, Olsen’s teams were either solid (Eastern Conference winners in 2014) or atrocious (3 total wins in 2013). Basically, I don’t really know what to make of it but, Houston hasn’t been good since 2017. And is Olsen enough to change the course?

On the field, it all revolves around HH and Carrasquilla. On paper, a good complementary midfield pairing. Carrasquilla has the energy and pace to make up for HH’s age. However, in the dogdays of summer with Houston’s humidity it’s not ideal to put everything on a 32-year-old midfielder. Adding Artur from the Crew should help protect the backline.

Thor Ulfarsson showed some JoMo-esque – and I’m talking the good JoMo with two ACLs – traits in his first year. But, bringing in Amine Bassi (FC Metz) and Ivan Franco (Club Libertad) creates a logjam on the wings.

Last year’s captain Tim Parker was traded to newcomers St. Louis City. That leaves Hadebe and Daniel Steres as the center back partnership. Hadebe is solid, I don’t know about DP level but there are worse CBs, and Steres comes with questions.

And there’s Steve Clark. As mentioned previously, you have the same chance of saving a PK than Clark, so we will be taking the PK takers against Houston as anytime goal scorers.

This Houston team still lacks the quality necessary to be competitive. The optimistic view is 2 of your DPs enter their 2nd year and there’s an expansion team in your conference, so you might not finish last. The pessimistic view is wooden spoon.

LAFC (5-1)

• Carlos Vela
• Denis Bouanga (Year 2)
• OPEN

Only twice in this century has a team won back-to-back MLS Cups (most recently 2011-2012 LA Galaxy). Even with Gareth Bale’s surprise retirement, the Black and Gold are stacked across the front 3. “Chicho” Arango, Vela, and Bouanga are the one of the best in the league. Denis Bouanga enters his second season at a prime age and looked immensely impressive in his first half season in America. A year 2 bump puts him on an MVP level and golden boot candidate even with Chico and Vela. Just scary.

Update: Arango left for Pachuca at the end of the winter transfer window. Not only is this a loss in the attack, but also their ability to initiate the press. LAFC was 5th in PPDA last year. We know Vela isn’t doing it, Bouanga will press, but the organization and timing are most important. They brought in a kid from Croatia, but he only has 1g in 1100mins. Really interesting to let Chico walk.

FWIW — I had LAFC finishing 1st in the West before the transfer.

In the midfield, Cifuentes has been in the transfer rumors for a while. If not now than I would expect him to leave in the summer. That would leave the midfield thin. And by thin, I mean it just leaves Kellyn Acosta (loved by some, hated by many) and Ilie. I would be scouring the market for a DP, two-way midfielder if I oversaw LAFC.

Adding Adam Long at CB limits Chiellini’s minutes, which is a good thing. Having a 38-year-old as a starter at any position, outside of GK, is always a bad idea. But if you need a man to set up a WhatsApp group to help the club commit fraud, Giorgio’s your man.

Yes, the attack is other worldly for MLS standards. However, I question the depth at other positions on the pitch to put capital behind a repeat for LAFC right now.

LA Galaxy (10-1)

• Chicharito
• Douglas Costa (Year 2)
• OPEN

I’m sure Greg Vanney is tired of hearing everyone ask, “Why won’t you play both Chicharito and Jovelic at the same time?” But Vanney wants to dominate the wide spaces. It just didn’t help Costa, Grandsir, and Cabral underperformed relative to expectations. And the latter two have left the club. The image below shows how dominate with the ball LAG were in the attacking wings.

Douglas Costa enters his 2nd season, although he was involved in some transfer rumors. So, optimistic thinking would suggest he shows some improvement, but he is also 32.

How Puig came over on a non-DP deal, I don’t know but what a player he was last year. Puig put up .5 xG+xA/90, and LAG got points in 10/12 of his appearances. He is an MVP front runner this year and can be the catalyst to silverware for the Galaxy.

An underrated move was the arrival of Memo Rodriguez from Houston. Memo will do great at breaking up the play and protecting the backline to let the attackers do what they do best.

Mexican RB Julian Araujo left for Barcelona (although that might be TBD as of writing). That leaves 32-year-old Kelvin Leerdam as the sole remaining RB on the roster. The defense isn’t the strongest, but I trust Vanney to put together good game plans and structure in the team.

Vanney won the East in his 2nd full year in Toronto but lost the MLS Cup Final to Seattle. I think LAG can lift the cup this year and will look to see if we can get better than 10-1 during the year.

Minnesota United (35-1)

• Emanuel Reynoso
• Luis Amarilla (Year 2, not counting the half season loan in 2020)
• Mender Garcia (Year 2)

In the era of high pressing, Minny and Adrian Heath remain steadfast in the low-block, counterattack game plan. Minny had 79 direct attacks (2nd in MLS) and were 3rd in Direct Speed, a measure of how fast the team moves the ball forward. The possession image below shows Minnesota’s low defensive block. Minnesota dominates possession inside their own box, for the most part.

The past few years the Minny defense has struggled without Bakaye Dibassy in the center. Minny were .18xGD better with Dibassy on the field last year and +.58xGD in 2021. After rupturing his quad in late August, Dibassy isn’t expected back until March or April. At least Minnesota brought in a handful of defenders in the offseason, most notably Zarek Valentin, and Doneil Henry. Thankfully, GK Dayne St. Clair kept Minny alive by saving 7 shots more than xG (PSxG). I Like DSC but think there is some luck there and would expect some regression. Until Dibassy returns, I see the same porous defense.

“Bebelo” Reynoso has times where he is the best #10 in the league. Exhibit A–

Bebelo and the Fin Robin Lod brings some quality to the attack, but outside of that it’s just bleh. But two DPs enter their second year with the club, so that gives Minnesota some hope.

I just think it’s more of the same for the Loons. And that means finishing somewhere between 5th and 9th.

Portland Timbers (50-1)

• Yimmi Chara
• Jaroslaw Niezgoda
• Evander (Year 1)

Gio Saverse’s success at Portland is well-documented. Since he left NY for the PNW in 2018, Portland has made the MLS Cup final or Open Cup semifinals every year, except last year. A bounce-back season might be in the cards. Portland brought in the biggest name this offseason with Evander from FC Midtjylland in Denmark. My guess this signals the end of the Sebastian Blanco-era by the end of the year as Evander will take over his #10 role. But even during his injury-prone season, Blanco was still very good last year. Between Blanco, Evander, and the Chara brothers Timbers should create a lot of high-quality chances.

The question marks for Portland this year come at two unideal positions – striker and center back. Another year of rotating between Felipe Mora (coming off an injury), Niezgoda (looked uninspiring for a DP), and Dairon Asprilla (in a false 9). Portland needs someone to step up and bag 15+ times this year. Then, at the back I will just never trust a rotation of Zuparic, Mabilala, and Tuiloma, no matter how many free kicks Bill T bags.

Overall, this seems like a team that finishes 3rd-7th and just out of reach for a title. But maybe Savarese is the difference to lead the Rose City to the cup.

RSL (50-1)

• Jefferson Savarino
• OPEN
• OPEN

xDAWG is the perfect encapsulation of RSL under Pablo Mastroeni. They’re not flashy, but they get the job done and master the “dark arts.” You might think that means RSL overperformed on xG last year, but they were right in line with an almost perfect 0.00xGD. RSL might play with the deepest backline in the league. Like Minny, they won’t press but set up in low and mid-blocks and look to counter. But with only one DP signed, that significantly limits the potential upside from Sandy boys.

The offseason for RSL was eh, too. Aaron Herrera left for Montreal just a year after his Best XI year. Last year’s top scorer, Sergio Cordova, is now at Augsburg. Outside of Cordova, no one else racked up 5+xG last year. Not great!

But club legend Damir Kreilach returns after just playing 5 games last year due to injury. Pablo Ruiz controls the game from the middle, and Savarino was excellent to secure RSL a playoff berth.

RSL’s homefield advantage seems more noteworthy. The past two years RSL gained 95 total points. 63 points from home games and just 32 from away games. The Sandy difference!

RSL has experience and depth in the squad. I just don’t see enough quality (right now) to be a serious contender. Pass.

San Jose Earthquakes (80-1)

• Cristian Espinoza
• Jamiro Monteiro
• Carlos Gruezo (Year 1)

The biggest long shot with a chance to lift the cup. After the chaotic – somewhat idiotic – pressing of Matias Almeyda’s warrior ball, Luchi Gonzalez is now in charge. Fair warning, I briefly worked with Luchi in Dallas, so might be some bias here. He will still emphasize building out from the back and the press but won’t leave his center backs on islands which was a constant under Almeyda. Luchi should prioritize team defense in his first year after SJ conceded conference worse 69 (nice!) goals last year. I will likely be on some of their unders early in the season.

But this team has talent in attack. Ebobisse got out of the log jam #9 in Portland to score 17 goals last year. Monteiro, Espionza, and Kikanovic (if he doesn’t get sold back to Almayda now in Greece) are dangerous underneath J-Ebo. Not to mention Cade Cowell, who looked dangerous in the USMNT friendly, is then left on the bench.

Jan Gregus seems to be and linked to Rangers in Scotland which is a massive loss. Depth in the midfield is a real question. Outside of the most likely starting 3 – Judson, Yueill, and Monteiro – leaves Jack Skahan (a Tar Heel), newly signed Michael Baldisimo as a backup d-mid, and a bunch of Homegrowns (including talented 16-year-old Cruz Medina).

UPDATE: Carlos Gruezo comes in on DP deal that was confirmed on 1/31. He has previous MLS experience with Luchi in Dallas. I like the signing and think he fits here.

Overall, not really a serious title contender, but a fun team in terms of talent on the roster and Luchi implementing his style after being USMNT’s 2nd-in-command.

Seattle Sounders (14-1)

• Nico Lodeiro
• Albert Rusnak
• Raul Ruidiaz

From being the first MLS team to win the CONCACAF Champions League to missing MLS Cup playoffs, last year was a tumultuous time for the Sounders. Joao Paulo going down with an ACL injury during the CCL run completely changed the midfield dynamics. In addition, Ruidiaz suffered injury spells later in the year and without those two they simply weren’t good enough.

But JP and Rui are back. Heber comes in from NYCFC as the backup striker role in place of the Dancing Bear (Will Bruin) which is a positive move. Outside of that, it is really the same Sounders team that I’ve grown to love over the past few years and hopefully their injury luck is behind them.

If there was a question, I guess it would be age as Lodeiro and Ruidiaz are on the wrong side of 30. Yet, the presence of JP as the holding mid preventing transition threats and restarting the Sounders’ attacks makes that less of an issue.

A make-or-break year for Brazilian Leo Chu, who was signed two years ago from Gremio. The kid has pace but has failed to put anything together in Seattle. He will start the year as the backup to JoMo, but I think he can show some growth this year in the PNW.

Brian Schmetzer and crew can make another Cup run, but I will wait and watch a few matches before allocating capital. Sounders overs might become a thing in 2023.

Sporting KC (50-1)

• Johnny Russell
• Alan Pulido
• Gadi Kinda

Man, this would’ve been different if Ronaldo signed for them instead of going to Saudi… oh well. Not my GOAT!

Injury woes hampered SKC in 2022. Kinda and Pulido never saw the field after offseason knee injuries. Going from 3 DPs to 1 is a recipe for disaster for any team in this league. But after Vermes brought in Agada and Thommy in the summer transfer, SKC finished the year 6-2-2 (and +5.5xGD).

SKC is basically two deep at every spot across the forward and midfield lines. The issues are at the back, and they come in the form of both quality and depth.

Isimat-Mirin left in the offseason. So, that leaves 36-years-old Graham Suzi, 33-years-old Andreu Fontas, and a crew who have never showed consistency. SKC did sign Tim Leibold from Stuttgart (Thommy must be good recruiter then) to help, but year 1 in MLS always brings questions.

SKC have massive fun potential. With their quality up front, they must dominate the game by having and keeping the ball there. If it breaks down, sound the alarms. We could very well see some #MLSAfterDark scores in the 4-3, 5-2 type range.

Similar to the Rapids, if injuries are not a problem this year, SKC can host a playoff game, but I can’t trust the defense with any significance right now. I will wait and see how Vermes sets them up before believing SKC can win the cup.

STL SC (80-1)

• Klauss (Year 1)
• Eduard Lowen (Year 1)
• OPEN

Welcome, St. Louis! The newest expansion side comes under the Arches. So, let’s look at how previous expansion sides have fared in year 1. The last 8 expansion teams have scored: 42, 31, 32, 24, 24, 57, 36, and 55 points their inaugural year. Only two teams made the playoffs.

On the field, it would seem Bradley Carnell is bringing his “energy drink” soccer with him from RBNY. I always look for (and want) MLS experience in expansion teams. These players aren’t going to be the flashiest signings, but they build stability and depth necessary in the long MLS season.

The backline has plenty of MLS experience. Tim Parker, John Nelson, John Bell, and Jake Nerwinski have been in the league for a few years and are all at or nearing typical prime ages. So, great success!

The midfield comes with questions. And maybe the three most important positions in a high press style. If these three don’t have the ability to cover the entire field and slow the opponent’s ball progression, it could get ugly quick. I just don’t know enough about their new players now to assess their ability in a press.

The attack has two typical buy-low MLS players in Gioacchini and Vassilev. Two players with solid pedigrees but underperformed at a few stops before landing here. We might look back on these as two great interleague signings (a la Bronico for CLTFC last year).

But year 1 for an expansion side the chance to participate in the playoff race, is a success.

Vancouver Whitecaps (66-1)

• Ryan Gauld
• Andres Cubas (Year 2)
• OPEN

Ah, everyone’s darling, The ‘Caps. Unfortunately, I don’t think that will be the case this year because of one position, Goalkeeper. Cody Cropper didn’t have his option picked, so that leaves Thomas Hasal as the clear #1. In his career of 2900 minutes, Hasal has a -.21 PSxG/90. Basically, he lets in an additional goal every 5 games.

Outside of goalie, I really like this ‘Caps team. The 3-5-2 setup fits perfectly. Ryan Guald is a very good creator to play through in the 10 role. Cubas is elite at stopping the attack, and Julian Gressel succeeds in an attacking wing back role where he can whip ball in for Brian White.

Why are they the darlings of the league? The ‘Caps are elite as big home underdogs to teams like LAG, LAFC, and Seattle. Last year there were 5 times the Whitecaps were +200 or larger home underdogs. They went 4-1-0 in those 5 games. In 2021, 4-2-3 in the same set of games. So even though they won’t be great, they are one of the best teams to bet on in the league.

They are one of the youngest teams in the league. I just think they are a year or two away from any serious contention after the magical run that secured Vanni Sartini’s spot as the full-time manager.

Table Prediction

1. LAG
2. LAFC
3. Timbers
4. Sounders
5. SKC
6. Rapids
7. Austin
8. Dallas
9. Minny
10. Quakes
11. RSL
12. Vancouver
13. StL SC
14. Houston

Wagers

Haven’t allocated anything yet, so looking at teams: (in order)

1. LAG – Arango leaving LAFC makes 10-1 look better but want to watch a few games before firing.
2. SKC – want to see how the D holds
3. Timbers – want to see how Evander adapts to the league and what is his role this year.
4. Colorado – can they sign 1 (or 2) DPs? Looking like it’s a no 😦