Now, for the East. A quick summary of the offseason — Nashville reenters the East after a year in the West, one guy won the World Cup, NYCFC sold almost everyone, and Messi to Miami???

There are some questions with the top teams with elite players leaving in the off season or rumored to potentially leave in the summer. So, I promise there will be at least one (1) wager at the end; I think there is value on the board in this conference. If you missed the Western Conference Preview, check it out here.

Atlanta United (25-1)

• Thiago Almada (Year 2)
• Luiz Araujo
• Giorgios Giakoumakis (Year 1)

The club’s all-time leading goalscorer, Josef Martinez, was ushered out the door to Miami. And that was probably for the better after his infamous chicken and rice post-game locker room melee. The club brought in Etienne from Columbus and have signed a replacement striker from Glasgow Celtic.

The remaining internationals seem out of favor, except for the World Cup winning Thiago Almada. Marcelino Moreno and Edwin Mosquera are out on loan and Luiz Araujo has been involved in numerous transfer rumors.

Atlanta gets three key players back from injuries last year – Brad Guzan, Miles Robinson, and Ozzie Alonso. The latter worries me as he is 37, coming off an ACL injury, and playing most of his games on a turf field. Guzan and Robinson will be vital to success in 2023. Robinson has showed he can be a Best XI caliber CB in this league, and Atlanta will need him to play at that level to be successful.

Andrew Gutman was a bright spot from last year’s team playing in a free role and contributing significantly to the attack. Josef wasn’t cutting it in the #9 role, and there remains the question as who can score 15+ goals for this Atlanta team. Last year, Atlanta created 56xG yet only scored 48 goals. So, there might be some variance in their favor this year.

There are too many roster construction questions with this team to be title contenders. I trust Lagerwey and Pinedo bring Seattle’s winning ways to the ATL, just don’t know if this is the year. Will finish somewhere near the playoff race bubble.

Charlotte FC (45-1)

• Karol Swiderski (Year 2)
• Kamil Jozwiak (Year 2)
• Enzo Copetti (Year 1)

RIP #5 AW

In the Western conference preview, I went through the challenges expansion teams have in their first year. So, let’s walk through how they have done in year two.

The last seven expansion teams have scored 56, 54, 41, 16 (FCC), 72, 69 and 36 points in their 2nd year. Plus, Atlanta won MLS Cup and LAFC made the conference finals. Basically, year two in the league brings optimism to CLTFC supporters.

Last year, the attack was bottom three in the conference just creating 1.23xG/90. CLTFC had the least direct attacking sequences and was one of the slowest attacks last year (from TheAnalyst). The coaching change from M.A. Ramirez to Lattanzio saw some initial starters become backups and vice versa. Charlotte addressed it by acquiring a DP striker from Argentina. So, Swiderski will play more in the #10/Second Striker role as he did in the latter part of the season.

The midfield isn’t the sexiest, but it might be one of the most slept on units in the league, especially Derrick Jones. CLTFC were +.36xG/90 in his 16 matches after transferring in from Houston midseason.

The Polish GK, Kahlina starts the season on the injury report with a back injury and no exact time to return.

CLTFC’s goal should be playoffs or bust after narrowly missing out last year. I thought we would get a number closer to 66-1, but that wasn’t the case. I’ll wait now and see if we can get a better number and get clarity on Kahlina’s return.

Fair warning, I’m from Charlotte and a CLTFC season ticket holder so, there’s probably some bias in there.

Chicago Fire (75-1)

• Xherdan Shaqiri (Year 2)
• Gaston Gimenez
• OPEN

Have the Fire become a developer of young talent, or it is just lucky timing? They sold 19-year-old Jhon Duran for $18M to Aston Villa in January and GK Gaga Slonina is at Chelsea after the mid-season transfer agreement. Probably just luck, but if someone is next in line it is Jairo Torres. The young DP came in with big expectations and failed to deliver in his first year, but he could see a jump this year in the Windy City.

The loss of Duran still raises the question as to who can score enough goals in this team to get them out of the battle at the bottom of the table. Good news for Ezra’s side is there could be some positive attacking regression on their side. Last year, the Fire created 47xG but only scored 39 times, the largest positive difference in the East. Plus, Swiss international Shaqiri enters his 2nd year in the league, so maybe 1 or 2 more wondergoals hit the net; he is capable of them.

The defense is thin across the back 4. There’s really no adequate backup in any of the spots. Without Gaga, there’s a question at GK, too. The starting job is between another 18-year-old, Chris Brady, and Spencer Richey who has the FCC stink on him and didn’t get much time last year in Seattle.

For a team that finished exactly even on xGD last year, 12th place was disappointing. I just don’t see enough quality in the side to see much more improvement from the Fire.

FC Cincinnati (20-1)

• Obinna Nwobodo (Year 2)
• OPEN
• OPEN

Basement dwellers no more! Last year, Pat Noonan led FCC to the club’s first playoff berth in his first year in the fake Queen City. The player turnover was most significant at GK. In 2022, three keepers let in 15 more goals than expected. Last year, Kann and Celetano lowered that to just 2.5 goals. Still not great, but not the worst and that’s a success.

Led by the attacking trio of Brenner, Vazquez, and Acosta, FCC utilizes a quick strike, counter-focused attack. Brenner’s breakout second season was not something many predicted, but a reason to never count anyone out after just one year. But with transfer rumors already swirling, the question is will the Brazilian be with the team after the summer transfer window?

The defensive numbers should improve with a full year of Miazga instead of Geoff Cameron. Acquiring Yerson Mosquera on loan from Wolves should also provide stability in the back.

On paper it would seem FCC is a clear contender for the top of the East. And I agree, for the most part. But success most likely means goals from Brenner and goals from Brenner means he will be sold to Europe in the summer and not on the team for the MLS playoffs. Who knows? That might also be true for Brandon Vasquez as he has the chip on his shoulder from not making the squad in Qatar. If I’m investing into a team now, I don’t want their two best players already involved in transfer rumors.

Columbus Crew (28-1)

• Cucho Hernandez (Year 2)
• Darlington Nagbe
• Lucas Zelarayan

Late game heartbreak. The most consistent part of the Crew’s 2022 season was that they were going to concede late. They conceded 17 goals after the 75th minute and dropped 25 points from winning positions. All this led to Caleb Porter seeing the door after lifting the Cup in 2020.

So why am I betting the Crew to lift the cup now? One, the late game variance can’t continue, can it? The Crew lost just 8 games last year (2nd best in the East) but had 16?!? draws. Porter was known for bunkering late in games but with Wilfred Nancy now on the sidelines, a new strategy should give hope to the Crew faithful. Two, Cucho. .46xG/90 after he arrived in the summer. With a year two improvement, that is Golden Boot and MVP level. Plus, he is not there on his own. LZ is one of the best #10s in the league and will create countless chances for Cucho.

Now trading club captain, Jonathan Mensah, to the Quakes was not something I predicted. That creates some susceptibility in the back that I did not have before. Mensah is one of the 10 best CBs in the league, but at 33 his best years are probably behind him. My guess is that Nancy wasn’t impressed with Mensah’s mobility in a back 3 after being in a back 4 under Porter.

Lastly, Wilfred Nancy is one of the best coaches in the league. His improvement of Montreal last year was surprising but the number back it up. Montreal had the lowest xGA (37.1) despite conceding 50 times and improved their xGD by 14 goals.

28-1 (I got them at 30-1 and would take them at anything better than 20-1) for a team with two elite players in the #10 and #9 roles (both most likely staying through the summer transfer window), an upgrade in coach, and a solid GK is a play every time in this league. UP THE BLACK & GOLD!

DC United (66-1)

• Christian Benteke (Year 2)
• Taxi Fountas (Year 2)
• Mateusz Klich (Year 1)

He goes by the name of Wayne Rooney! He’s now leading the team he played for, albeit briefly. And boy, there’s been a lot of change in this DC side from last year. On one hand, that’s good because they were terrible last year and got spanked by Philly 6-0 and 7-0. On the other hand, do I trust Wayne and the new executives to make the right personnel decisions? Right now, I’m leaning towards no.

Two of their DPs, Benteke and Klich, are on the wrong side of 30. However, Taxi Fountas was excellent at putting the ball in the net last year in his limited playing time. So, I expect him to carry this DC attack.

The midfield is a real question. Ravel Morrison isn’t going to give anything without the ball. This leaves Klich and Palsson (or Canouse) to cover the midfield. If Rooney decides to press, like he did at Derby, oh boy, we’re in for a roller coaster.

One thing they did correctly was a full reshuffle of the GK room. DC were second to last in PSxG last year. They brought in Tyler Miller from Minny and Alex Bono from Toronto to help the situation. Is it worrying that both were benched last year? Yes. But they will probably be an upgrade over last year’s trio.

I expect another near bottom of the table season for DC. I don’t like the roster, the DPs probably won’t play at the level needed, and I’m not sold on Rooney as a manager.

Inter Miami CF (20-1)

• Josef Martinez
• Rodolfo Pizarro
• OPEN

Messi?? If the rumors are true and Messi comes to Miami in the summer, then Miami might be worth something to win the cup. Without him, eh they’re average.

I’m not a believer in Neville as a manager. But he improved considerably from year one to year two in the league. Miami plays in a low block. They created the 2nd fewest number of high turnovers last year.

Gonzalo Higuain retired after their playoff loss, so the scoring responsibility falls onto Josef and Leo Campana. But I am most interested in seeing how Jake LaCava adjusts coming up from the USL Championship. LaCava played three years in the second division and put up .5G+A/90. That includes two years with NYRB2 who were terrible. I really like him and excited to see what the 22-year-old can do in the top domestic league.

The midfield provides excellent cover for a backline with questions. Brazilians Mota and Gregore put up excellent defensive numbers as holding midfielders. But I can’t trust Yedlin (holy shit he’s only 29?? would’ve guess he was 33) and a new signee from Shakhtar Donetsk.

CF Montreal (15-1)

• Victor Wanyama
• OPEN
• OPEN

Changes aplenty after a successful campaign last year, which is a familiar site in MLS. Ismael Kone, Djordje Mihailovic, Alistair Johnson, and manager Nancy were all key pieces to the breakout season last year and all have left Stade Saputo.

The back 3 and GK remain the same, all of which were excellent last year, leading Montreal to have lowest xGA in the East. Plus, the addition of George Campbell from Atlanta brings more depth. Now, how much of that was Nancy compared to the players? It’s hard to say but Hernan Losada will bring more of an attacking emphasis to this year’s team.

Kei Kamara has been outspoken that he wants out of Montreal. So, that leaves Quioto, who has consistently underperformed his xG numbers, and Toye, who looked bright in limited minutes last year. Not to mention both Kamara and Quioto are on the wrong side of 30.

With two DP slots open, it will be interesting to see how Losada fills them. I just think the task it too tall after losing many key pieces from last year’s run.

Nashville SC (10-1)

• Hany Mukhtar
• Walker Zimmerman
• OPEN

An underrated aspect of Nashville moving back into the East is the reduced travel the team will have this year. Last year, Nashville traveled the most miles of any team.

The main questions about Nashville this year are 1) Can Hany do everything for their attack again? and 2) Can the aging midfield hold up?

Hany was elite, MVP, best player in the league, and Golden Boot winner (which I cashed at 10-1 midseason NBD) last year. But is there another player that can step up to support the attack this year. Randall Leal is the first option that comes to mind and struggled with injuries last year after a successful 2021 campaign with 8g+7a. Jacob Shaffelburg and Fafa Picault would be my next choices, but I doubt we will see both on the field at the same time. Basically, Nashville doesn’t have a #9 that I see as high caliber enough for them to win the cup.

My eyes told me the team is better with Dax playing in the midfield and the numbers agree, too. They were +.25xGD/90 with Dax on the field. But Dax is going to turn 35 this year. The other two CM starting candidates are Godoy (32) and Davis (29). If I was Nashville, I would look for a 6 or two-way 8 midfield player to occupy the last DP slot.

10-1 is way too short for a team without a #9 and an aging midfield. I love Hany but wouldn’t be surprised if this team misses the playoffs in a crowded East.

NE Revolution (28-1)

• Gustavo Bou
• Carles Gil
• Giacomo Vrioni (Year 2)

Similar to Nashville, the Revs saw how difficult it was when Carles Gil lacked the support last year. Gustavo Bou suffered a couple of injuries and Lletget, Altidore, and Buska were all shipped off midyear.

But can Bruce Arena get these three DPs to play together? Bou and Vrioni are both strikers that want to stay centrally, neither really is a winger. Then, Carles plays the 10 behind them. To me, that would leave them susceptible to a low block defense. As teams would pack the middle and let the non-DP wingers try to beat them.

Dylan Borrero is one to watch. The 20-year-old Colombian put up .4xG+xA in limited minutes last year. He projects as a Derek Etienne-type winger.

The back four are well above league average and Petrovic was the best keeper in the league last year. Is his PSxG sustainable? Probably not. But he should be excellent again.

The injury bug got them last year. Improved health and my trust in Bruce Arena to get the team on the right page makes NE a worthy playoff team this year.

NYCFC (8-1)

• Talles Magno
• Thiago Martins (Year 2)
• OPEN

NYCFC has the most turnover of any team in MLS. The Maxi Morales era is over. Alex Callens, the best CB in the league, left for Girona with former teammate Taty Castellanos. SeanJohn left for Toronto. I could go on and on, but Eliot McKinley detailed % of minutes returning here. No surprise NYCFC falls at the end of the list.

Being part of the City Football Group does give them the fortune of reloading with new, young talent. Talles Magno seems the first choice #9, which hasn’t been his best position in terms of producing goals and assists. However, I believe the thought process is that Magno is the best choice to begin the press as he is willing to create pressures, interceptions, and tackles more so than other alternatives.

Two key returners are Santi Rodriguez and Gabi Pereira. Both young South Americans were key to last year’s playoff run. Santi showed moments where he is a Best XI player. The turnover gives these two kids a chance for 90 minutes week in and week out.

Another player who now has the opportunity for expanded playing time is Keaton Parks. The Citizens were .9xG/90 better with Parks on the field than off. Injuries limited Parks’ playing time last year, but if the Texan stays healthy, he can lead this NYCFC midfield and potential get a call-up to the USMNT.

50 points seems right for this current roster, after all the changes. So, I’m expecting them somewhere around the playoff line.

NYRB (18-1)

• Luquinhas (Year 2)
• Dante Vanzeir (Year 1)
• OPEN

Gerhard Struber is on the hot seat entering his third year on the Red side NYC (a.k.a Harrison, NJ). The team that presses the most (9.3 PPDA last year) is also the deepest in the league. Every position has at least 1 capable replacement.

The weakness in NYRB of recent has been the striker position. DP Klimala has left for Israel (I’m still waiting for his positive goal scoring regression with his excellent xG numbers). They brought in Corey Burke, the Philly super-sub, and Belgian DP Dante Vanzeir to lead the attacking line. Burke has had the per 90 numbers to be a Golden Boot candidate, if he can fend off the competition. Also, Burke is an asset in direct attacks, either running in behind or with hold up play, which NYRB had fourth most last year.

Again, it seems like a make-or-break year for Struber. NYRB want a trophy and have a capable team to do so. Can they put the years of disappointment behind them and make history?

Orlando City (35-1)

• Ercan Kara (Year 2)
• Facundo Torres (Year 2)
• Martin Ojeda (Year 1)

Another team with about two handfuls of changes from last year’s team. It seems like most have been cementing this Orlando team as ‘most improved’ or ‘best offseason,’ but I’ll defer to join in on that sentiment.

I say that for two reasons. Honestly, I don’t know much about the South American leagues where Orlando acquired most of their players. And two, will they make a significant impact this year? History says they will probably be overhyped for now.

One player I do rate is Duncan McGuire who Orlando selected in the MLS Superdraft. McGuire led the NCAA in goals with 23 last year and makes excellent movements to get open in the box. Orlando has a history of making great Superdraft picks (i.e., Dike, Larin, Hadji Berry, Mueller, etc.). I think McGuire can step into a supersub role and make an impact.

For the players on the team last year, the biggest positives are that both Uruguayans Facundo Torres and Cesar Araujo are now onto year 2 in the league. Plus, DP striker Ercan Kara looks to improve on a lowly year 1.

If Antonio Carlos and Robin Jansson are healthy, they are a top 3 CB pairing in the league. When one is out, there’s an impactful drop off when Schlegel comes on.

When it comes to the checklist I mentally go through on can this team lift the cup, it’s all about the spine of the field. Goalie? Check. Two CBs? Check. Strong D-Mid? Check. Playmaker #10? Check. Reliable goalscorer? Eh. Facundo might be that from what he showed in year 1, but Kara hasn’t yet. If you think he steps up, then Orlando at 33-1 or better is definitely a play.

Oscar Parjea has a history of being a great tournament coach. He prioritizes the Open Cup more than any other manager. I think that helps Orlando as they have already been in knockout matches once MLS Playoffs comes around.

Philadelphia Union (6-1)

• Daniel Gazdag
• Mikael Uhre (Year 2)
• OPEN

The current Champions of the East. Despite many offseason rumors, the Boys of Ben remain mostly intact. Corey Burke and Paxton Aaronson are the notable departures. The two challenges any successful team has the next year are 1) key players being sold, and 2) more matches with additional international competitions.

While Philly survived #1 for now, they probably won’t after the summer transfer window. Kai Wagner and Jose Martinez were involved in rumors, so I would expect them to be out the door. And maybe 1/2 more guys depending on how the next few months go. Plus, they must deal with the travel challenges of CCL. Although not new to this Philly team, it adds complexities in recovery, training, and increases potential for injuries.

Now, Jack Elliot and Jakob Glesnes have been the definition of stability. The past two years they were the CB pairing for 98% of all minutes. It that sustainable? Maybe, maybe not. With the way Philly let teams dominate possession, two elite CBs are a must. Both players enter their prime years, and with them Union will be Shield contenders.

Jose Martinez is the elite-level #6 that MLS Cup teams need. Currently, I don’t think there is another one on the roster. I expect Jose to leave in the summer and think that severely limits Philly’s chances to go back to the Final.

Toronto FC (30-1)

• Federico Bernardeschi (Year 2)
• Lorenzo Insigne (Year 2)
• OPEN

Bob Bradley has become Will Ferrell. Bernardeschi and Insigne enter year 2 in Toronto. An interesting betting angle last year was that Insigne had shorter “Anytime Goal Scorer” odds, but Bernardeschi takes the PKs for them. So, we will be on Bernardeschi anytime if the books keep it around +175 to +200.

The most significant improvement Toronto made was acquiring GK Sean Johnson in free agency. Last year, goalie was an obvious weakness, but with SeanJohn that is now a strength as he is a top 10 GK.

I worry about the age of the Toronto team. Michael Bradley led the team in minutes played last year. They can’t afford Bradley to miss significant time. Matt Hedges comes in to improve another weakness of last year’s team. But again, he is 32, so how healthy can he stay during the long season.

SeanJohn and Hedges raise the floor of this team. But from being a bottom 3 defense in the league last year, there is still a long way to go. Can Bernardeschi and Insigne raise their level to put Toronto into the title chase? That remains to be seen.

Standings

1. Crew
2. Philly
3. FCC
4. NE
5. NYCFC
6. Orlando
7. Atlanta
8. Charlotte
9. Toronto
10. NYRB
11. Nashville
12. Miami
13. Montreal
14. DC United
15. Chicago Fire

The teams from 4-11 are so close. It was really difficult to differentiate between them.

Wagers

• Columbus Crew to Lift 30-1 (play at 22-1 or better)
• Orlando City to Lift 33-1 (play at 33-1 or better)
• Maybes: NE or CLTFC (as their number creeps up to 60-1+)