The4thDP

2026 World Cup Predictor

the4thDP

Crowd at MetLife Stadium celebrating with question marks over players around FIFA World Cup 2026 trophy
2026 FIFA World Cup Predictor
Official groups ยท Confederation-adjusted Poisson xG ยท 100k Monte Carlo simulations
Host nation boost Mid-tier Elo regression MD3 draw clustering Conf. xG scaling Knockout compression Poisson scorelines
Teams
48
12 groups of 4
Squad value
โ‚ฌ17.8B
Combined
Avg xG/match
2.51
All adjustments
Matches
104
48-team format
Top contenders โ€” advance % ยท win WC %
Nation
Advance
Win WC
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
FranceFavouriteGroup of death
Grp I ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’2002 ยท ฮป 1.82โ€“0.74
96.5%
advance
12.5%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
SpainContender
Grp H ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1988 ยท ฮป 1.76โ€“0.64
97.6%
advance
10.5%
win WC
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
EnglandContender
Grp L ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1969 ยท ฮป 1.72โ€“0.72
96.2%
advance
9.8%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
ArgentinaDark horse
Grp J ยท CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1954 ยท ฮป 1.62โ€“0.69
95.9%
advance
7.2%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
BrazilDark horse
Grp C ยท CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1935 ยท ฮป 1.63โ€“0.74
96.3%
advance
8.1%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
GermanyDark horse
Grp E ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1935 ยท ฮป 1.66โ€“0.79
96.8%
advance
7.8%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น
Portugal
Grp K ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1921 ยท ฮป 1.68โ€“0.82
95.7%
advance
7.2%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
Netherlands
Grp F ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1906 ยท ฮป 1.57โ€“0.80
89.4%
advance
5.4%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช
Belgium
Grp G ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1873 ยท ฮป 1.48โ€“0.86
94.4%
advance
7.8%
win WC
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท
Croatia
Grp L ยท UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1849 ยท ฮป 1.33โ€“0.90
84.4%
advance
4.1%
win WC
All 48 teams ranked by composite model score (Elo regression ยท conf. xG ยท squad value). Includes all historical corrections.
48-team power rankings
Score = 40% squad value ยท 38% Elo ยท 22% xG differential
#
Nation
Score
Elo
ฮป Off
ฮป Def
Advance
Win WC
Tier 1 โ€” Elite
1
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
France GOD
Grp I ยท UEFA
0.901
score
2002
adj. Elo
1.82
xG for
0.74
xG ag.
96.5%
advance
12.5%
win WC
2
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
Spain
Grp H ยท UEFA
0.889
score
1988
adj. Elo
1.76
xG for
0.64
xG ag.
97.6%
advance
10.5%
win WC
3
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
England
Grp L ยท UEFA
0.871
score
1969
adj. Elo
1.72
xG for
0.72
xG ag.
96.2%
advance
9.8%
win WC
4
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
Argentina
Grp J ยท CONMEBOL
0.840
score
1954
adj. Elo
1.62
xG for
0.69
xG ag.
95.9%
advance
7.2%
win WC
5
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
Brazil
Grp C ยท CONMEBOL
0.834
score
1935
adj. Elo
1.63
xG for
0.74
xG ag.
96.3%
advance
8.1%
win WC
6
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
Germany
Grp E ยท UEFA
0.829
score
1935
adj. Elo
1.66
xG for
0.79
xG ag.
96.8%
advance
7.8%
win WC
Tier 2 โ€” Contenders
7
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น
Portugal
Grp K ยท UEFA
0.819
score
1921
adj. Elo
1.68
xG for
0.82
xG ag.
95.7%
advance
7.2%
win WC
8
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
Netherlands
Grp F ยท UEFA
0.793
score
1906
adj. Elo
1.57
xG for
0.80
xG ag.
89.4%
advance
5.4%
win WC
9
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช
Belgium
Grp G ยท UEFA
0.749
score
1873
adj. Elo
1.48
xG for
0.86
xG ag.
94.4%
advance
7.8%
win WC
10
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท
Croatia
Grp L ยท UEFA
0.691
score
1849
adj. Elo
1.33
xG for
0.90
xG ag.
84.4%
advance
4.1%
win WC
11
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
Switzerland
Grp B ยท UEFA
0.685
score
1839
adj. Elo
1.33
xG for
0.80
xG ag.
90.4%
advance
4.1%
win WC
12
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
Norway GOD
Grp I ยท UEFA
0.668
score
1801
adj. Elo
1.41
xG for
0.92
xG ag.
80.3%
advance
3.3%
win WC
13
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Morocco
Grp C ยท CAF
0.663
score
1820
adj. Elo
1.06
xG for
0.57
xG ag.
83.7%
advance
3.9%
win WC
14
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช
Sweden
Grp F ยท UEFA
0.636
score
1791
adj. Elo
1.27
xG for
0.89
xG ag.
72.6%
advance
2.8%
win WC
Tier 3 โ€” Challengers
15
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ
Mexico Host
Grp A ยท CONCACAF
0.635
score
1782
adj. Elo
1.23
xG for
0.81
xG ag.
87.6%
advance
2.9%
win WC
16
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
Japan
Grp F ยท AFC
0.629
score
1786
adj. Elo
1.10
xG for
0.73
xG ag.
71.4%
advance
2.6%
win WC
17
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
USA Host
Grp D ยท CONCACAF
0.622
score
1762
adj. Elo
1.12
xG for
0.83
xG ag.
84.6%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
18
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ
Uruguay
Grp H ยท CONMEBOL
0.622
score
1791
adj. Elo
1.17
xG for
0.84
xG ag.
80.9%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
19
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด
Colombia
Grp K ยท CONMEBOL
0.609
score
1772
adj. Elo
1.17
xG for
0.87
xG ag.
79.6%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
20
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น
Austria
Grp J ยท UEFA
0.597
score
1734
adj. Elo
1.23
xG for
0.92
xG ag.
77.1%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
21
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท
Tรผrkiye
Grp D ยท UEFA
0.581
score
1734
adj. Elo
1.21
xG for
0.97
xG ag.
77.2%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
22
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ
Senegal GOD
Grp I ยท CAF
0.578
score
1753
adj. Elo
0.99
xG for
0.82
xG ag.
61.1%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
23
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท
South Korea
Grp A ยท AFC
0.563
score
1724
adj. Elo
1.08
xG for
0.82
xG ag.
49%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
24
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
Scotland
Grp C ยท UEFA
0.552
score
1705
adj. Elo
1.15
xG for
0.98
xG ag.
75%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
Tier 4 โ€” Competitive
25
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
Ivory Coast
Grp E ยท CAF
0.551
score
1724
adj. Elo
1.01
xG for
0.84
xG ag.
74%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
26
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
Czechia
Grp A ยท UEFA
0.536
score
1695
adj. Elo
1.16
xG for
1.00
xG ag.
72.6%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
27
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Canada Host
Grp B ยท CONCACAF
0.522
score
1686
adj. Elo
1.00
xG for
0.90
xG ag.
76.9%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
28
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ
Ecuador
Grp E ยท CONMEBOL
0.520
score
1705
adj. Elo
1.08
xG for
0.97
xG ag.
73.3%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
29
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ
Australia
Grp D ยท AFC
0.497
score
1676
adj. Elo
0.91
xG for
0.89
xG ag.
58.9%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
30
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท
Iran
Grp G ยท AFC
0.486
score
1705
adj. Elo
0.82
xG for
0.92
xG ag.
67.3%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
31
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ
Egypt
Grp G ยท CAF
0.484
score
1676
adj. Elo
0.91
xG for
0.91
xG ag.
69.2%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
32
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Bosnia-Herz.
Grp B ยท UEFA
0.478
score
1657
adj. Elo
1.07
xG for
1.07
xG ag.
61.6%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
33
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
Algeria
Grp J ยท CAF
0.476
score
1666
adj. Elo
0.89
xG for
0.94
xG ag.
57.1%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
34
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ
Tunisia
Grp F ยท CAF
0.459
score
1666
adj. Elo
0.85
xG for
0.96
xG ag.
40.1%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
35
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ
Ghana
Grp L ยท CAF
0.446
score
1638
adj. Elo
0.85
xG for
0.98
xG ag.
45.5%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
36
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Saudi Arabia
Grp H ยท AFC
0.445
score
1647
adj. Elo
0.82
xG for
0.96
xG ag.
45.9%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
Tier 5 โ€” Underdogs
37
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ
Paraguay
Grp D ยท CONMEBOL
0.444
score
1647
adj. Elo
0.95
xG for
1.05
xG ag.
51.3%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
38
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ
DR Congo
Grp K ยท CAF
0.444
score
1666
adj. Elo
0.82
xG for
0.98
xG ag.
47.2%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
39
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
South Africa
Grp A ยท CAF
0.417
score
1609
adj. Elo
0.84
xG for
0.96
xG ag.
33.4%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
40
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
Uzbekistan
Grp K ยท AFC
0.413
score
1628
adj. Elo
0.80
xG for
0.99
xG ag.
41.6%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
41
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ
Iraq GOD
Grp I ยท AFC
0.392
score
1609
adj. Elo
0.78
xG for
1.01
xG ag.
29.1%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
42
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป
Cape Verde
Grp H ยท CAF
0.391
score
1609
adj. Elo
0.78
xG for
0.99
xG ag.
36.9%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
43
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Panama
Grp L ยท CONCACAF
0.379
score
1604
adj. Elo
0.78
xG for
1.08
xG ag.
40%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
44
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Qatar
Grp B ยท AFC
0.370
score
1590
adj. Elo
0.75
xG for
1.01
xG ag.
42.5%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
45
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด
Jordan
Grp J ยท AFC
0.365
score
1599
adj. Elo
0.73
xG for
1.03
xG ag.
37.8%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
46
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
New Zealand
Grp G ยท OFC
0.336
score
1570
adj. Elo
0.61
xG for
1.01
xG ag.
39.5%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
47
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ
Curaรงao
Grp E ยท CONCACAF
0.266
score
1522
adj. Elo
0.66
xG for
1.15
xG ag.
25.7%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
48
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น
Haiti
Grp C ยท CONCACAF
0.236
score
1503
adj. Elo
0.64
xG for
1.19
xG ag.
18.5%
advance
<0.1%
win WC
All 48 group stage matches in chronological order. Scores from Poisson(ฮป). Host boost & MD3 clustering shown. Times ET.
Thu Jun 11
3:00 PM
Grp A Host boost
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico
1 โ€“ 1
U2.08
63% ยท D15% ยท 21%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa
ฮป 1.24โ€“0.84
CONCACAFยทCAF
10:00 PM
Grp A
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea
1 โ€“ 1
U2.11
39% ยท D26% ยท 35%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia
ฮป 1.07โ€“1.04
AFCยทUEFA
Fri Jun 12
3:00 PM
Grp B Host boost
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
0 โ€“ 0
U2.15
44% ยท D23% ยท 33%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia-Herz.
ฮป 1.17โ€“0.99
CONCACAFยทUEFA
9:00 PM
Grp D Host boost
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA
0 โ€“ 1
U2.12
59% ยท D17% ยท 24%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay
ฮป 1.22โ€“0.90
CONCACAFยทCONMEBOL
Sat Jun 13
3:00 PM
Grp B
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar
0 โ€“ 1
U2.03
17% ยท D12% ยท 71%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland
ฮป 0.83โ€“1.20
AFCยทUEFA
6:00 PM
Grp C
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
1 โ€“ 0
U2.12
56% ยท D18% ยท 26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco
ฮป 1.17โ€“0.96
CONMEBOLยทCAF
9:00 PM
Grp C
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti
1 โ€“ 1
U2.03
17% ยท D12% ยท 71%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland
ฮป 0.85โ€“1.18
CONCACAFยทUEFA
Sun Jun 14
12:00 AM
Grp D Away host
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
1 โ€“ 0
U2.14
30% ยท D21% ยท 49%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Tรผrkiye
ฮป 0.93โ€“1.20
AFCยทUEFA
1:00 PM
Grp E
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
0 โ€“ 1
U2.20
86% ยท D7% ยท 7%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ Curaรงao
ฮป 1.41โ€“0.79
UEFAยทCONCACAF
4:00 PM
Grp F
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
0 โ€“ 1
U2.21
55% ยท D18% ยท 26%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan
ฮป 1.20โ€“1.00
UEFAยทAFC
7:00 PM
Grp E
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast
0 โ€“ 1
U2.03
40% ยท D25% ยท 35%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador
ฮป 1.03โ€“1.00
CAFยทCONMEBOL
10:00 PM
Grp F
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden
1 โ€“ 4
U2.06
57% ยท D18% ยท 26%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia
ฮป 1.15โ€“0.91
UEFAยทCAF
Mon Jun 15
12:00 PM
Grp H
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain
0 โ€“ 1
U2.18
84% ยท D8% ยท 9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde
ฮป 1.40โ€“0.78
UEFAยทCAF
3:00 PM
Grp G
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium
3 โ€“ 1
U2.16
66% ยท D14% ยท 20%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt
ฮป 1.23โ€“0.93
UEFAยทCAF
6:00 PM
Grp H
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia
0 โ€“ 0
U1.98
26% ยท D18% ยท 57%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay
ฮป 0.88โ€“1.10
AFCยทCONMEBOL
9:00 PM
Grp G
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran
1 โ€“ 2
U1.76
54% ยท D19% ยท 27%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand
ฮป 0.95โ€“0.81
AFCยทOFC
Tue Jun 16
3:00 PM
Grp I
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
0 โ€“ 1
U2.28
71% ยท D12% ยท 17%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal
ฮป 1.36โ€“0.92
UEFAยทCAF
6:00 PM
Grp I
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq
0 โ€“ 1
U2.13
19% ยท D14% ยท 67%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway
ฮป 0.89โ€“1.24
AFCยทUEFA
9:00 PM
Grp J
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina
1 โ€“ 0
U2.16
75% ยท D11% ยท 15%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria
ฮป 1.31โ€“0.86
CONMEBOLยทCAF
Wed Jun 17
12:00 AM
Grp J
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria
1 โ€“ 1
U2.03
62% ยท D16% ยท 22%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan
ฮป 1.16โ€“0.87
UEFAยทAFC
1:00 PM
Grp K
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal
1 โ€“ 2
U2.23
76% ยท D10% ยท 14%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo
ฮป 1.35โ€“0.88
UEFAยทCAF
4:00 PM
Grp L
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England
0 โ€“ 2
U2.42
57% ยท D18% ยท 25%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
ฮป 1.34โ€“1.08
UEFAยทUEFA
7:00 PM
Grp L Away host
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana
0 โ€“ 1
U1.98
41% ยท D25% ยท 34%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama
ฮป 0.95โ€“1.03
CAFยทCONCACAF
10:00 PM
Grp K
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan
2 โ€“ 1
U2.00
24% ยท D17% ยท 59%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia
ฮป 0.89โ€“1.11
AFCยทCONMEBOL
Thu Jun 18
12:00 PM
Grp A
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia
0 โ€“ 1
U2.05
50% ยท D21% ยท 29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa
ฮป 1.10โ€“0.95
UEFAยทCAF
3:00 PM
Grp B
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland
1 โ€“ 1
U2.20
60% ยท D17% ยท 24%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia-Herz.
ฮป 1.22โ€“0.99
UEFAยทUEFA
6:00 PM
Grp B Host boost
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
3 โ€“ 0
U1.98
56% ยท D18% ยท 26%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar
ฮป 1.15โ€“0.83
CONCACAFยทAFC
9:00 PM
Grp A Host boost
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico
1 โ€“ 3
U2.14
47% ยท D22% ยท 31%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea
ฮป 1.18โ€“0.96
CONCACAFยทAFC
Fri Jun 19
3:00 PM
Grp D Host boost
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA
1 โ€“ 4
U2.04
53% ยท D19% ยท 27%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
ฮป 1.16โ€“0.88
CONCACAFยทAFC
6:00 PM
Grp C
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland
1 โ€“ 0
U1.99
30% ยท D21% ยท 49%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco
ฮป 0.93โ€“1.05
UEFAยทCAF
8:30 PM
Grp C
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
3 โ€“ 1
U2.16
87% ยท D7% ยท 6%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti
ฮป 1.41โ€“0.75
CONMEBOLยทCONCACAF
11:00 PM
Grp D
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Tรผrkiye
3 โ€“ 1
U2.15
52% ยท D20% ยท 28%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay
ฮป 1.16โ€“1.00
UEFAยทCONMEBOL
Sat Jun 20
1:00 PM
Grp F
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
0 โ€“ 1
U2.35
54% ยท D19% ยท 27%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden
ฮป 1.27โ€“1.09
UEFAยทUEFA
4:00 PM
Grp E Away host
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
1 โ€“ 0
U2.31
65% ยท D15% ยท 21%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast
ฮป 1.25โ€“1.06
UEFAยทCAF
8:00 PM
Grp E
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador
0 โ€“ 1
U1.99
65% ยท D15% ยท 21%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ Curaรงao
ฮป 1.13โ€“0.86
CONMEBOLยทCONCACAF
Sun Jun 21
12:00 AM
Grp F
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia
1 โ€“ 2
U1.92
26% ยท D18% ยท 56%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan
ฮป 0.85โ€“1.07
CAFยทAFC
12:00 PM
Grp H
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain
2 โ€“ 1
U2.19
80% ยท D9% ยท 11%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia
ฮป 1.39โ€“0.80
UEFAยทAFC
3:00 PM
Grp G
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium
0 โ€“ 1
U2.12
66% ยท D14% ยท 20%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran
ฮป 1.23โ€“0.89
UEFAยทAFC
6:00 PM
Grp H
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay
0 โ€“ 0
U1.97
62% ยท D16% ยท 22%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde
ฮป 1.11โ€“0.86
CONMEBOLยทCAF
9:00 PM
Grp G Away host
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand
0 โ€“ 0
U1.87
26% ยท D18% ยท 56%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt
ฮป 0.77โ€“1.10
OFCยทCAF
Mon Jun 22
1:00 PM
Grp J
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina
0 โ€“ 2
U2.32
64% ยท D15% ยท 21%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria
ฮป 1.30โ€“1.02
CONMEBOLยทUEFA
5:00 PM
Grp I
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
1 โ€“ 1
U2.26
84% ยท D7% ยท 9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq
ฮป 1.43โ€“0.82
UEFAยทAFC
8:00 PM
Grp I
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway
1 โ€“ 3
U2.16
47% ยท D22% ยท 31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal
ฮป 1.16โ€“1.00
UEFAยทCAF
11:00 PM
Grp J
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan
0 โ€“ 0
U1.87
30% ยท D21% ยท 49%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria
ฮป 0.88โ€“0.99
AFCยทCAF
Tue Jun 23
1:00 PM
Grp K
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal
0 โ€“ 1
U2.22
78% ยท D10% ยท 13%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan
ฮป 1.36โ€“0.87
UEFAยทAFC
4:00 PM
Grp L
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England
2 โ€“ 1
U2.22
79% ยท D9% ยท 12%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana
ฮป 1.37โ€“0.85
UEFAยทCAF
7:00 PM
Grp L Host boost
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama
1 โ€“ 0
U2.18
19% ยท D13% ยท 68%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
ฮป 1.00โ€“1.18
CONCACAFยทUEFA
10:00 PM
Grp K
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia
2 โ€“ 1
U2.00
55% ยท D18% ยท 26%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo
ฮป 1.10โ€“0.90
CONMEBOLยทCAF
Wed Jun 24
3:00 PM
Grp B Away hostMD3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland
1 โ€“ 0
U1.81
43% ยท D34% ยท 23%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
ฮป 0.92โ€“0.88
UEFAยทCONCACAF
6:00 PM
Grp C MD3
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland
2 โ€“ 2
U1.93
16% ยท D28% ยท 57%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
ฮป 0.83โ€“1.10
UEFAยทCONMEBOL
6:00 PM
Grp C MD3
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco
0 โ€“ 0
U1.51
67% ยท D23% ยท 10%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti
ฮป 0.94โ€“0.57
CAFยทCONCACAF
9:00 PM
Grp A Away hostMD3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia
1 โ€“ 1
U1.87
24% ยท D35% ยท 41%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico
ฮป 0.83โ€“1.04
UEFAยทCONCACAF
9:00 PM
Grp B MD3
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia-Herz.
0 โ€“ 1
U1.67
40% ยท D35% ยท 25%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar
ฮป 0.89โ€“0.78
UEFAยทAFC
Thu Jun 25
4:00 PM
Grp E MD3
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador
1 โ€“ 1
U1.93
15% ยท D27% ยท 59%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
ฮป 0.82โ€“1.11
CONMEBOLยทUEFA
4:00 PM
Grp E MD3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ Curaรงao
0 โ€“ 0
U1.58
16% ยท D27% ยท 57%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast
ฮป 0.67โ€“0.91
CONCACAFยทCAF
7:00 PM
Grp F MD3
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan
1 โ€“ 0
U1.74
29% ยท D41% ยท 30%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden
ฮป 0.86โ€“0.88
AFCยทUEFA
7:00 PM
Grp F MD3
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia
1 โ€“ 3
U1.81
13% ยท D26% ยท 61%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
ฮป 0.73โ€“1.08
CAFยทUEFA
10:00 PM
Grp D Away hostMD3
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Tรผrkiye
0 โ€“ 1
U1.84
27% ยท D38% ยท 36%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA
ฮป 0.85โ€“0.99
UEFAยทCONCACAF
10:00 PM
Grp D MD3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay
0 โ€“ 1
U1.64
27% ยท D38% ยท 35%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
ฮป 0.80โ€“0.84
CONMEBOLยทAFC
Fri Jun 26
3:00 PM
Grp I MD3
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway
3 โ€“ 0
U2.10
18% ยท D29% ยท 52%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
ฮป 0.94โ€“1.16
UEFAยทUEFA
3:00 PM
Grp I MD3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal
0 โ€“ 1
U1.57
48% ยท D32% ยท 21%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq
ฮป 0.86โ€“0.71
CAFยทAFC
8:00 PM
Grp H MD3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde
0 โ€“ 0
U1.54
27% ยท D38% ยท 35%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia
ฮป 0.76โ€“0.78
CAFยทAFC
8:00 PM
Grp H MD3
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay
0 โ€“ 1
U1.92
17% ยท D28% ยท 55%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain
ฮป 0.81โ€“1.11
CONMEBOLยทUEFA
11:00 PM
Grp G MD3
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt
1 โ€“ 2
U1.55
29% ยท D41% ยท 30%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran
ฮป 0.79โ€“0.75
CAFยทAFC
11:00 PM
Grp G MD3
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand
3 โ€“ 1
U1.71
10% ยท D23% ยท 66%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium
ฮป 0.65โ€“1.05
OFCยทUEFA
Sat Jun 27
5:00 PM
Grp L Host boostMD3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama
1 โ€“ 0
U1.91
8% ยท D22% ยท 69%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England
ฮป 0.77โ€“1.14
CONCACAFยทUEFA
5:00 PM
Grp L MD3
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
1 โ€“ 1
U1.75
53% ยท D29% ยท 18%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana
ฮป 0.98โ€“0.76
UEFAยทCAF
7:30 PM
Grp K MD3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia
1 โ€“ 1
U1.95
19% ยท D30% ยท 50%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal
ฮป 0.87โ€“1.09
CONMEBOLยทUEFA
7:30 PM
Grp K MD3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo
0 โ€“ 1
U1.55
32% ยท D39% ยท 28%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan
ฮป 0.78โ€“0.77
CAFยทAFC
10:00 PM
Grp J MD3
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria
0 โ€“ 2
U1.72
24% ยท D35% ยท 41%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria
ฮป 0.79โ€“0.93
CAFยทUEFA
10:00 PM
Grp J MD3
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan
0 โ€“ 1
U1.76
8% ยท D22% ยท 70%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina
ฮป 0.65โ€“1.12
AFCยทCONMEBOL
100,000 simulated group stages ยท all corrections active ยท top 2 auto-qualify ยท 8 best 3rd-place advance.
1st (auto-qualify) 2nd (auto-qualify) 3rd (may advance)
Group A
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ
Mexico Host CONCACAF ยท Eloโ†’1782
54.6%
26.2%
87.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
Czechia UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1695
28.1%
35.5%
72.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท
South Korea AFC ยท Eloโ†’1724
11.2%
23.4%
49%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
South Africa CAF ยท Eloโ†’1609
6.1%
14.9%
33.4%
Group B
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
Switzerland UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1839
51.1%
27.1%
90.4%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Canada Host CONCACAF ยท Eloโ†’1686
25.6%
32.3%
76.9%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Bosnia-Herz. UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1657
15.5%
24.5%
61.6%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Qatar AFC ยท Eloโ†’1590
7.8%
16.1%
42.5%
Group C
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
Brazil CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1935
59.6%
26.8%
96.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Morocco CAF ยท Eloโ†’1820
24.8%
37.6%
83.7%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
Scotland UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1705
14.3%
30%
75%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น
Haiti CONCACAF ยท Eloโ†’1503
1.4%
5.6%
18.5%
Group D
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
USA Host CONCACAF ยท Eloโ†’1762
41.5%
28.5%
84.6%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท
Tรผrkiye UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1734
29.7%
29.7%
77.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ
Australia AFC ยท Eloโ†’1676
16.3%
22.4%
58.9%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ
Paraguay CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1647
12.5%
19.4%
51.3%
Group E
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
Germany UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1935
66.5%
22.5%
96.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
Ivory Coast CAF ยท Eloโ†’1724
16.8%
34.5%
74%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ
Ecuador CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1705
14.4%
33.7%
73.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ
Curaรงao CONCACAF ยท Eloโ†’1522
2.3%
9.3%
25.7%
Group F
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
Netherlands UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1906
50.1%
26.5%
89.4%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช
Sweden UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1791
21.7%
29.4%
72.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
Japan AFC ยท Eloโ†’1786
21%
29%
71.4%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ
Tunisia CAF ยท Eloโ†’1666
7.1%
15%
40.1%
Group G
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช
Belgium UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1873
63.3%
22.7%
94.4%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ
Egypt CAF ยท Eloโ†’1676
16%
31.3%
69.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท
Iran AFC ยท Eloโ†’1705
15.2%
29.9%
67.3%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
New Zealand OFC ยท Eloโ†’1570
5.4%
16.1%
39.5%
Group H
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
Spain UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1988
71.6%
20.8%
97.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ
Uruguay CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1791
19.5%
44.1%
80.9%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Saudi Arabia AFC ยท Eloโ†’1647
5.3%
19.6%
45.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป
Cape Verde CAF ยท Eloโ†’1609
3.7%
15.5%
36.9%
Group I Group of death
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
France UEFA ยท Eloโ†’2002
65.6%
23.4%
96.5%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
Norway UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1801
20.9%
39.4%
80.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ
Senegal CAF ยท Eloโ†’1753
10.7%
26.3%
61.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ
Iraq AFC ยท Eloโ†’1609
2.8%
10.9%
29.1%
Group J
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
Argentina CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1954
66.8%
22%
95.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น
Austria UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1734
19.8%
37.8%
77.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
Algeria CAF ยท Eloโ†’1666
9.1%
24.7%
57.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด
Jordan AFC ยท Eloโ†’1599
4.3%
15.5%
37.8%
Group K
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น
Portugal UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1921
64.8%
23.6%
95.7%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด
Colombia CONMEBOL ยท Eloโ†’1772
22.5%
39.5%
79.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ
DR Congo CAF ยท Eloโ†’1666
7%
19.8%
47.2%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
Uzbekistan AFC ยท Eloโ†’1628
5.7%
17.1%
41.6%
Group L
Nation
Win grp
2nd
Advance
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
England UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1969
63.7%
25.3%
96.2%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท
Croatia UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1849
26.4%
42.1%
84.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ
Ghana CAF ยท Eloโ†’1638
5.6%
17.4%
45.5%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ
Panama CONCACAF ยท Eloโ†’1604
4.4%
15.2%
40%
Confederation-adjusted ฮป ยท Poisson draws ยท host boost ยท Elo regression ยท MD3 option
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
France
UEFA ยท Eloโ†’2002 ยท adv 96.5%
vs
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
England
UEFA ยท Eloโ†’1969 ยท adv 96.2%
40%
25%
35%
France winDrawEngland win
France ฮป
1.32
UEFA adj.
Total ฮป
2.60
Over 2.5
England ฮป
1.28
UEFA adj.
Poisson scoreline
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
0 โ€“ 1
England ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
England win
Full bracket simulation ยท xG compressed each round ยท Poisson scorelines
Model-projected totals ยท all historical corrections applied
Projected goals
190
across all 104 matches
Avg xG/match
2.51
all corrections applied
Over 2.5 rate
58%
group stage (MD3 adj.)
Clean sheet rate
24%
all rounds
Expected goals/match and Over 2.5% by round
Avg xG/match Over 2.5%

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