2026 FIFA World Cup Predictor
Official groups · xG from 940 matches across 6 datasets · SOS-adjusted · GDP/cap & population · 100k simulations
PELE rating (30%)
Host nation boost
Mid-tier Elo regression
MD3 draw clustering
Conf. xG scaling
Knockout compression
Poisson scorelines
GDP per capita
Population depth
Teams
48
12 groups of 4
Squad value
€17.6B
Official Transfermarkt
Avg xG/match
2.76
Betting-calibrated
Matches
104
48-team format
Top contenders — advance % · win WC %
Nation
Advance
Win WC
All 48 teams ranked by composite model score (Elo regression · conf. xG · squad value). Includes all historical corrections.
48-team power rankings
Score = 30% PELE · 30% Elo · 20% squad value · 10% xG diff · 6% GDP/cap · 4% population
#
Nation
Score
PELE
Elo
λ Off
λ Def
GDP/cap
Pop (M)
Advance
R16
Make QF
Make SF
Win WC
Win WC
All 48 group stage matches in chronological order. Scores from Poisson(λ). Host boost & MD3 clustering shown. Times ET.
100,000 simulated group stages · all corrections active · top 2 auto-qualify · 8 best 3rd-place advance.
1st (auto-qualify)
2nd (auto-qualify)
3rd (may advance)
Confederation-adjusted λ · Poisson draws · host boost · Elo regression · MD3 option
Full bracket simulation · xG compressed each round · Poisson scorelines
Model-projected totals · all historical corrections applied
Expected goals/match and Over 2.5% by round
Avg xG/match
Over 2.5%
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